The number of civilian casualties in Afghanistan dropped by 15% in 2020 compared to the previous year but the Central Asian country has seen a surge in the number of dead and injured since the start of peace negotiations between Kabul and the Taliban in September 2020, according to a United Nations report.  “The overall number of civilian casualties in 2020 of 8,820 (3,035 killed and 5,785 inured) fell below 10,000 for the first time since 2013. … While the reduced numbers are welcome, documentation shows that the lower levels of overall harm...

The administration of US President Joe Biden has inherited a slew of national security priorities resulting from the policies of the previous presidency of Donald Trump. One that lies to the immediate south of the United States is an intensifying cycle of illicit activity across the Mexico-US border that is defined by two mutually reinforcing threats: the northern flow of narcotics to feed American demand for drugs, and the southwards trafficking of weapons that is helping to fuel high levels of violence between competing cartels seeking to e...

The Indian and Chinese armies have completed their agreed withdrawal of troops from a bitterly contested area along the disputed Line of Actual Control (LoAC) in the Himalayas where they had been locked in a standoff since May 2020.  “The smooth disengagement of frontline troops in the Pangong Lake area was a significant step forward that provided a good basis for the resolution of other remaining issues along the LoAC,” said the Indian government’s Press Information Bureau (PIB) in a 21 February statement.  Indian soldiers near the Zojila...

NATO’s Mediterranean-based anti-submarine warfare (ASW) exercise ‘Dynamic Manta’ is being bolstered this year by the rare presence of a carrier strike group (CSG).  The French Navy’s carrier strike group led by the aircraft carrier FS Charles de Gaulle (pictured) will join ‘Dynamic Manta’ as it transits the exercise area during a pre-deployment work up. (USN)    Hosted by NATO’s Maritime Command (MARCOM), ‘Dynamic Manta’ is taking place off Sicily between 22 February and 5 March. The French Navy’s   Charles de Gaulle  CSG is...

The Federal Protection Service (Federalnaya Sluzhba Okhrany: FSO) traces its history back to the Ninth Directorate of the former Soviet Committee for State Security (Komitet Gosudarstvennoy Bezopasnosti: KGB). In 1991, it became the Soviet Presidential Security Directorate, then later in 1991 the Main Security Directorate of the Russian Federation, and in 1996, it became the FSO. Despite the numerous name changes, relatively few practical changes to the service have taken place.  The service’s real challenges were initially political, relatin...

The US Navy (USN) had plans and drills in place meant to halt or hamper the spread of disease before the onset of Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, but the service had failed to act on them, according to the Pentagon Inspector General (IG) report ‘Evaluat...

An executive order signed by US President Joe Biden on 27 January pledged to tackle climate change and framed the issue as a priority for US national security. The executive order included national security-related tasks for the Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security, and the Director of National Intelligence (DNI).  The president ordered the DNI to prepare “a National Intelligence Estimate [NIE] on the national and economic security impacts of climate change” within 120 days of the order being signed. Additionally, Secretary...

The number of enemy-initiated attacks (EIAs) in Afghanistan continues at a high level, especially in Kabul where US Forces-Afghanistan (USFOR-A) have reported an uptick in targeted assassinations of Afghan government officials, civil-society leader...

Efforts by the United States to defend critical infrastructure from foreign cyber threats during the 2020 presidential election focused on preventing disruptive events that could interfere with voter registration and identification, polling, and canvassing. This encompassed efforts to identify and resolve vulnerabilities that could be exploited by an adversary and efforts to establish clear red lines to deter hostile acts through a robust declaratory posture reinforced by multiple officials across the whole of government.  The US Cyber Comman...

The EU is now operationally testing its concept for Co-ordinated Maritime Presences (CMP): a new co-operative tool for exchanging maritime picture data and analyses among national navies of the EU in designated areas of interest. The CMP pilot proj...

A detachment of Spanish Air Force (Ejército del Aire Español: EdAE) Eurofighter combat aircraft and support staff arrived at Mihail Koglaniceanu Air Base on 25 January, marking the service’s first operational deployment to Romania in support of NATO.  Spanish Eurofighters arrive at Mihail Koglaniceanu Air Base, Romania, on 25 January. They will fly through to the end of March in support of NATO’s Southern Air Policing mission. NATO Allied Air Command.  Six EdAE Eurofighters and 130 personnel arrived at the base on Romania’s Black Sea coast, f...

Amid heightened tensions over maritime and territorial disputes in the South China Sea (SCS) Beijing has passed a law authorising the China Coast Guard’s (CCG’s) use of firepower – under certain circumstances – against foreign vessels in waters “under China’s jurisdiction”.  According to the new ‘Maritime Police Law of the People’s Republic of China’, which was adopted on 22 January by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the CCG is now authorised to take “all necessary measures, including the use of weapons, when nationa...

In a press release on 8 January, the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported that 2020 was Europe’s warmest year on record. Winter temperatures in 2020 exceeded those of 2016, the previous warmest year, by 1.4  o  C. The announcement was based on C3S’s air temperature data and other sources that are available to open-source researchers. The evidence was collected from optical, radar, and sensor data from the constellation of the European Space Agency’s Sentinel satellites, a large number of historical records, a...

Throughout the seven months that followed the US/Taliban peace deal of 29 February, there have been repeated accusations by Afghan authorities that the Taliban was not sticking to the group’s commitment to a reduction in violence, even if what was...

France’s highest administrative court, the Council of State (Le Conseil d’Etat), rejected an appeal by six trade unions on 4 January against three Ministry of the Interior decrees that would enable police and the gendarmerie to hold information on...

Hizbullah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah gave an interview to Al Mayadeen TV on 27 December in which he claimed that the group was not seeking war with Israel but reiterated that the group would retaliate against the killing of a Hizbullah commander in Syria in July 2020. Nasrallah’s statement underlined that, although the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) told   Janes   in late November that Israel faces no ‘existential threat’, the country continues to face multiple security challenges.     Although Israel normalised...

United States Cyber Command deployed a team to Estonia in November 2020 as part of a new strategy that emphasises operating outside US networks. The mission, lasting from 23 September to 6 November and coinciding with the US presidential election, was reported by   The New York Times  on 3 December. The newspaper reported Brigadier General William J Hartman, commander of the Cyber National Mission Force, as saying that the ‘hunt forward’ mission allowed Cyber Command “to broadly observe Russian techniques in Estonia and comp...

Saudi Arabia will cut its defence budget for 2021 by 3.8% to SAR175 billion (USD46.62 billion), marking a continued decline in the country’s defence spending, according to budget documentation released on 16 December.  Overall government spending was reduced to SAR990 billion, down 2.94% year-on-year. Government revenues are anticipated to be SAR849 billion, creating a budget deficit of SAR141 billion, or 4.9% of GDP. Defence expenditure as a percentage of public expenditure is expected to remain relatively stable in nominal terms at 17.68%....

The US Intelligence Community (USIC) and President Donald Trump had a conflictive relationship from the moment he took office. Trump frequently criticised the USIC because of its official determination in 2017 that the Kremlin’s disinformation and hacking campaign had helped him win the office, and those hard feelings are very likely to last beyond 20 January 2021, the date of his departure from office.    Mark Warner, Democratic Party Vice Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee that oversees the USIC, told   Janes  on 11...

Between August and October 2020, Israel concluded ‘normalisation’ agreements – brokered by the United States – with Bahrain, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates. These were the first formal agreements of recognition to be concluded between Israel and an Arab state since the Israel-Jordan peace treaty, signed in 1994. The most immediate and visible consequence of the Abraham Accords between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain, signed on 13 August, has been the rapid commencement of overt economic activity, particularly between the UAE and Israel.  D...