Russian president highly likely to remain in power despite Ukraine conflict setbacks

2023-02-24

Russian President Vladimir Putin's term as president officially ends in 2024 but he is highly likely to ‘contest' the 2024 presidential election despite his dwindling popularity as a consequence of the war in Ukraine. Carlos Berrera and Aditya Pareek analyse scenarios around the future of Putin's presidency and the war in Ukraine.

Key points

Janes assesses there is a high probability that Putin will remain in power through to the 2024 election
This likelihood would decline if the Kremlin is unable to reach certain strategic and military goals before the election
Janes assesses that a likely Russian offensive in the first half of 2023 would be unlikely to change the course of the conflict

Future of Putin's presidency:

Russian President Vladimir Putin's current term is scheduled to officially end in March 2024. The amendments to the Russian constitution, adopted in 2020, ‘nullified' Putin's previous terms, which allows him to run for the presidency in 2024 for a six-year term, as well as for another term in 2030, extending his potential rule to 2036.

The future of Putin's presidency is closely connected to the outcome of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. To maintain and increase the support of the electorate, the Kremlin likely aspires to conclude the ‘special military operation' before the next presidential election, and to showcase its victory, or any result the Kremlin can present as such, to the electorate. If the Kremlin does not achieve its strategic and military goals in Ukraine in time for the election, the likelihood of a transition of power away from Putin increases. Janes examines possible scenarios of the conclusion of Putin's current presidency.