Ukraine conflict: Impact on military aircraft programmes managed by Ukraine in Asia

Janes Markets Forecast: Military aircraft data on the global market for UkrOboronProm during 2021–31 by the total programme value. (Janes)

Ukrainian Antonov legacy transport aircraft are widely in use with military operators around the world, while Motor Sich engines power a few legacy Russian military helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft, such as the old Aero Vodochody L-39 trainer/light attack aircraft and more modern Hongdu Aviation Industry Group Corporation (HAIC) L‐15 jet trainers.

State-owned defence conglomerate UkrOboronProm (UOP), of which Antonov is part, is also involved in a series of maintenance and upgrade programmes of Russian-made platforms operated by South Asian armed forces.

The conflict in Ukraine will likely affect the supply of parts and kits to sustain ageing Antonov aircraft, as well as of engines and upgrades to different aircraft types managed by UOP and its export entities, especially in Asia.

Ukraine's main airbases and industrial assets have been targeted since the beginning of the conflict. Antonov Airport in Hostomel, where the company is based, witnessed clashes between Russian and Ukrainian troops since day one. Meanwhile, Lviv State Aircraft Repair Plant, which has historically been servicing Kazakhstan MiG-27 and MiG-29 combat aircraft, as well as Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, and Sudan MiG-29s, was allegedly destroyed. The fate of several MiG-29 fighter aircraft of the Azerbaijan Air Forces that were receiving upgrades at the factory is unknown.

Janes Markets Forecast data for military aircraft programmes, compiled on 28 February, and excluding Russia and Ukraine, show that the market for UOP between 2021 and 2031, before the conflict, was estimated at around USD710 million.