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New Caledonia’s probable rejection of independence likely to trigger violent protests by indigenous youths, particularly affecting mining
A nickel mine near Voh on the French island of New Caledonia, 17 November 2014. Source: Alain Jocard/AFP/Getty ImagesLikely new jihadist cell in eastern Burkina Faso poses elevated kidnap, death and injury risks to foreigners
Burkinabé soldiers take part in military anti-terrorism exercises on 13 April at the Kamboinsé General Bila Zagre military camp near Ouagadougou. Source: Issouf Sanogo/AFP/Getty ImagesLNA’s bid to control Libyan national institutions increases risk of renewed fighting between western and eastern militias
Libyan National Army (LNA) spokesperson General Ahmed al-Mismari, speaks at a news conference in the eastern city of Benghazi on 21 June 2018. Source: Abdullah Doma/AFP/Getty ImagesAttack on Ethiopian PM’s rally unlikely an assassination attempt, but indicates increased violence risk from hostile elements
Ethiopian police intervene during a rally in support of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, after a grenade blast in Meskel Square, Addis Ababa, on 23 June. Source: Yonas Tadesse/AFP/Getty Images
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Court jails man for knife-attack targeting police officer in the US' Michigan
AT A COURT in the city of Flint in the state of Michigan in the United States on 13 November, a man - identified as 51-year-old dual Tunisian-Canadian citizen Amor Ftouhi - was jailed to life in prison after he was found guilty on charges of committing an act of violence at an international airport,
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Hamas announces ceasefire with military in Israel
IN A STATEMENT released on 13 November, Hamas militants announced a ceasefire with Israeli military personnel, The Independent reported. The statement added that the ceasefire had been brokered by Egyptian officials and that the group, and other militant factions would respect the ceasefire, as long
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IED attack wounds at least six civilians in Syria's Homs
AT LEAST six civilians were wounded when an improvised explosive device (IED), emplaced by unidentified militants inside a passenger bus, detonated in al-Zahra neighbourhood in the city of Homs in Syria's Homs governorate on 13 November, Reuters reported. No group immediately claimed responsibility
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Government agent foils suspected Taliban SVBIED attack in Afghanistan's Nangarhar
MEDIA reports on 13 October stated that a National Directorate of Security (NDS) agent had foiled a suspected Taliban suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) targeting an unidentified building in Jalalabad city in Afghanistan's Nangarhar province on an earlier unspecified date,
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Islamic State militants kill eight civilians and a pro-government militiaman in Iraq's Anbar
EIGHT civilians and a pro-government militiaman were killed when Islamic State militants raided the residence of the militiaman in al-Dabtiya area in Karama district in Iraq's Anbar province on 11 November and opened fire, Iraqi News and Reuters reported.
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Finland to approve new intelligence-gathering legislation
Concerned about the threat from Russia and from domestic terrorism, Finland is finally regulating its intelligence community’s operations in statute. Veli-Pekka Kivimäki analyses the changes and their implications for Finland’s international positioning -
Europe steps up EU policing strategy
In 2018, the European Union began to implement its third Policy Cycle on Serious and Organised Crime. Matthew Redhead examines the drive in Brussels towards greater policing co-ordination as criminals adopt new technologies and Brexit approaches -
Software-defined radios point way for simpler direction finding
Advances in hardware and software are making it increasingly practical for open-source analysts to carry out radio direction finding. Tony Roper examines the impact the new tool is having on open-source analysis
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DRC opposition’s probable contesting of upcoming election results raises likelihood of limited protests, new transitional political authority
Key Points DRC’s upcoming elections, delayed from November 2016 and now scheduled for 23 December, will likely be held on time, with any (less likely) delays pushing it back no further than April 2019. The validity of the election result will likely be contested by the opposition, but
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Violent risks intelligence bulletin – 13 November 2018
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Homicides and theft rising in Mexico’s San Luis Potosí; narco-message emergence raises collateral death and injury risks
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UN sanctions relief for Eritrea this month would decrease tax risks, indicate accelerating normalisation of international relations
Military Capabilities Military Capabilities
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New NATO mission in Iraq to focus on training defence sector
A new, non-combat NATO-led mission will be stood up in Iraq next year to provide support to the country’s defence sector. UK Army Major General Christopher Ghika, the Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve’s (CJTF-OIR’s) deputy commander for strategy and information,
CBRN Assessment CBRN Assessment
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North Korea willing to ‘permanently dismantle’ Yongbyon nuclear site
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has expressed his willingness to continue to take measures towards his country's denuclearisation, including the permanent dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities, where a 5 MWe plutonium-producing reactor is located. The move was announced on 19
Jane's Intelligence Review Jane's Intelligence Review
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German Chancellor Merkel’s resignation as CDU party leader unlikely to reduce risk of early elections in 12-month outlook
Key Points The CDU’s renewal will highly depend on whether Merkel’s successor will largely continue with her centrist policy direction or move the party back further to the right. There is a heightened risk of early elections in the 12-month-outlook as the CDU’s junior coalition
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Coalition capture of Yemen’s Hodeidah city likely, despite US call for ceasefire and ongoing UN mediation efforts
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Homicides and theft rising in Mexico’s San Luis Potosí; narco-message emergence raises collateral death and injury risks
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UN sanctions relief for Eritrea this month would decrease tax risks, indicate accelerating normalisation of international relations
