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Southern Mali attack highlights likelihood of jihadist conflict reaching coastal West Africa, targeting foreigners, churches, mining companies
A French soldier of the Barkhane Force operation stands at a Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) base on 27 March 2019. Source: Daphne Benoit/AFP/Getty ImagesImplementation of ceasefire conditions reduces immediate likelihood of resumed escalation between Israel and Gazan militant groups
Gaza residents queue outside a post office in Gaza City to receive cash aid transfers from Qatar on 13 May 2019. Source: Mohammed Abed/AFP/Getty ImagesSri Lanka bombings point to likely involvement of Islamic State and an established jihadist network, increasing threat
Sri Lankan security personnel stand guard in front of St Anthony's Shrine two days after it was attacked as part of a string of suicide bomb attacks on churches and hotels in Colombo on 23 April 2019. Source: Getty Images 1138828851Latest CAR peace deal unlikely to hold due to militia rivalry, with likely popular opposition triggering protests
President Faustin-Archange Touadéra speaks at the peace deal talks between the CAR government and 14 armed groups in Khartoum, Sudan, on 5 February. Source: Ashraf Shazly/AFP/Getty Images
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Security alerts 24–31 May
Americas Argentina WATCH FOR: Disruption in bus, train, and air travel across Argentina on 25 May and 29 May during strikes Risk analysis: The CATT and UTA trade unions, which represent transportation workers, have called for a national strike on 25 May, a national holiday, demanding additional
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Islamist attacks on Burkinabe churches indicate a broadening strategy from stoking inter-ethnic violence to prioritising sectarian divisions
Suspected militant Islamist gunmen killed six people, including a priest, during a raid on a Catholic church in the town of Dablo in Burkina Faso’s Centre-Nord region on 12 May. Local officials stated that after opening fire on the congregation, the suspected militants set fire to the church
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Gwadar attack indicates growing threat to Chinese nationals in Balochistan but risks to Chinese projects relatively lower
Four hotel employees and one soldier were killed during an assault by four gunmen on the Pearl Continental Hotel in Gwadar in Pakistan's southern province of Balochistan on 11 May. The military reported the following day that all the assailants had been killed following a gun battle lasting several
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Confirmation of Islamic State network would increase likelihood of protracted Islamist campaign in Sri Lanka
On 26 April, Sri Lankan President Maithripal Sirisena confirmed that Zahran Hashim, the suspected orchestrator of the 21 April suicide bombings in the country, had died during his attack on the Shangri-La hotel in Colombo on that day. This followed unconfirmed international media reports on 24
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US militia leader arrest underscores ongoing risks of isolated arson attacks and confrontations with security forces
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) arrested the leader of the right-wing militia the United Constitutional Patriots (UCP), Larry Hopkins, in New Mexico on 20 April on firearms charges. The UCP has recently been conducting high-profile border surveillance operations on the US-Mexico border,
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Risk of religious conflict in Sri Lanka increases
The April 2019 terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka focused attention on the unresolved communal tensions affecting the country. Derek Henry Flood examines the complex ethno-linguistic and religious divisions that are likely to shape the risk of further violence, potentially between Muslim and Buddhist communities -
Extreme right activists build transnational narratives online
The threat posed by the extreme right has gained greater prominence in 2019. Mark Wilson surveys the online extreme-right landscape, examines the narratives being deployed among users from different countries, and assesses how these communities are likely to evolve -
Struggle for Syria’s future centres around Euphrates river
With the Islamic State defeated in Baghouz, attention will turn to the multiple competing forces ranged around the Euphrates river in Syria's Deir al-Zour governorate. Derek Henry Flood embeds with local forces in Deir al-Zour to assess the dynamics
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Country Risk Country Risk
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Turkish president's rebuke of major business lobby indicates increased risk of punitive government measures targeting opposition-aligned firms
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan censured on 16 May Turkey's main business group, the Turkish Industry and Business Association (Türk Sanayicileri ve Is Insanlari Dernegi: TUSIAD), saying that he would "hold accountable" those who "attack Turkey from
Military Capabilities Military Capabilities
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French Air Force introduces new UAV pilot training scheme
The French Air Force is ramping up the recruitment and training of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) crews to cope with the service’s expanding air vehicle inventory. While the 1/33 Belfort UAV squadron currently flies five GA-ASI MQ-9 Reaper medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) UAVs using 20
CBRN Assessment CBRN Assessment
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Images reveal further details of North Korean missile launch
Images released by North Korea's state-run media show that the two missiles the country launched on 9 May were of the same type as the close/short-range ballistic missile it test-fired on 4 May. The firings were part of a "strike drill of defence units of the Korean People's Army (KPA) in the
Jane's Intelligence Review Jane's Intelligence Review
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Southern Mali attack highlights likelihood of jihadist conflict reaching coastal West Africa, targeting foreigners, churches, mining companies
On 19 May, seven people were killed in a jihadist attack on a border post at Koury in Mali’s southern Sikasso region, near the Burkina Faso border. The attack comes amid warnings and assaults in coastal Ghana, Togo, and Benin, previously unaffected by terrorism, as well as Cote d’Ivoire,
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Turkish president's rebuke of major business lobby indicates increased risk of punitive government measures targeting opposition-aligned firms
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Unilateral Russian ceasefire announcement likely only affords temporary delay to Syrian government offensive in Idlib province
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Low-sophistication Islamist attack on churches and hospitality venues likely in Ghana amid growing militant network penetration
