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Latest CAR peace deal unlikely to hold due to militia rivalry, with likely popular opposition triggering protests
President Faustin-Archange Touadéra speaks at the peace deal talks between the CAR government and 14 armed groups in Khartoum, Sudan, on 5 February. Source: Ashraf Shazly/AFP/Getty ImagesPakistani separatist groups likely to be increasingly active despite sustained decline in nationwide NSAG attacks since 2014
Pakistani security forces take measures outside the Chinese consulate after an armed attack in Pakistan's southern port city of Karachi in November 2018. Source: Sabir Mazhar/Anadolu Agency/Getty ImagesMartial law extension, activation of 11th Infantry Division, to reduce risk of large-scale terrorist attacks in Mindanao
A villager standing with a weapon on his farm in September 2018 in Datu Piang, Maguindanao. Datu Piang town is one of the oldest towns in central Mindanao and has been under the control and protection of the MILF against IS forces and influence. Source: Jes Aznar / StringerSVBIED attack near Iran’s Chabahar port reflects militants’ targeting of strategic locations, but disruption to cargo unlikely
The scene following a suicide car bombing in front of the police headquarters in Chabahar, southeastern Iran, on 6 December. Source: STR/AFP/Getty Images
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UNSC visit to Mali, Burkina Faso likely to prompt political over military focus as terrorism risk spreads
The UN Security Council (UNSC) is due to visit Mali and Burkina Faso from 22 to 24 March 2019 as terrorist violence continues to spread in both countries. The mission will assess implementation of the northern Mali peace process, operationalisation of the G5-Sahel regional counter-terrorism force,
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Co-ordinated small-arms attacks on New Zealand mosques by suspected anti-Muslim perpetrators highly likely to be exceptional
Forty-nine people were killed and almost 50 wounded in small-arms attacks that targeted two mosques in the New Zealand city of Christchurch on 15 March. The attack was the first terrorism attack recorded in the country. The apparently co-ordinated small-arms attacks on two Christchurch mosques on 15
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Disrupted Indonesian plot indicates improving IED capability and continued jihadist reliance on family units to plan attacks
On 13 March, a suspected female militant detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) in a house in Sibolga, North Sumatra, killing herself and her child, following a 12-hour stand-off with police forces. This followed the arrest of her husband, suspected local militant Abu Hamzah, the previous
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Ambush underlines growing tempo of separatist violence in Indonesia’s Papua; threat remains limited in scope and capability
Three Indonesian soldiers were killed in an ambush by separatist militants armed with small-arms and spears/bows in the Nduga district of Indonesia’s Papua province on 7 March. The attack was claimed by the Tentara Pembebasan Nasional Papua Barat (TPNBP), or West Papua National Liberation
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Likely ad-hoc repatriation of Islamic State foreign fighters would strengthen jihadist networks in Europe
Between 800 and 1,000 Islamic State fighters, many of whom retain Western citizenship, are being held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) at detention centres in northeastern Syria. With the US planning to withdraw most of its troops from Syria imminently, the fate of these Islamic
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Struggle for Syria’s future centres around Euphrates river
With the Islamic State defeated in Baghouz, attention will turn to the multiple competing forces ranged around the Euphrates river in Syria's Deir al-Zour governorate. Derek Henry Flood embeds with local forces in Deir al-Zour to assess the dynamics -
Region reacts to US withdrawal from Syria
US President Donald Trump's sudden decision to withdraw US troops from Syria has created consternation among allies and raises the risk of intensifying clashes between Israel and Iran. Jonathan Spyer, Nicholas Blanford, and Kathryn Haahr analyse the implications of the move for regional stability -
Islamic State eyes comeback in Iraq
Iraq's parlous security situation is affording the Islamic State space to regroup. Dr Jonathan Spyer reports from the Qara Chokh mountain range on how one Islamic State pocket is consolidating its presence
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Ukraine’s presidential election very likely to see split vote leading to second round; conflicting policy announcements likely
On 31 March 2019, Ukraine will hold the first round of its presidential election, with 39 candidates running for the top office. With up to 15% of the 35.5 million voters effectively disenfranchised, the election is likely to favour candidates with strong nationalist platform and disadvantage
Military Capabilities Military Capabilities
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Russia moves more strike assets to Eastern Mediterranean
Russia appears to be moving additional air and naval assets into Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean, giving its military commanders more options in the theatre. A Project 636.3 ‘Kilo’-class diesel-electric submarine was seen transiting the Bosphorus form the Black Sea into the
CBRN Assessment CBRN Assessment
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USSTRATCOM commander paints dour future for New START
With just over five months to go before Washington withdraws from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, the top US general charged with nuclear weapons oversight painted a gloomy forecast for the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) set to expire in 2021. Air Force General John
Jane's Intelligence Review Jane's Intelligence Review
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Ukraine’s presidential election very likely to see split vote leading to second round; conflicting policy announcements likely
On 31 March 2019, Ukraine will hold the first round of its presidential election, with 39 candidates running for the top office. With up to 15% of the 35.5 million voters effectively disenfranchised, the election is likely to favour candidates with strong nationalist platform and disadvantage
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Iraqi government will likely favour mediation with PKK over military escalation in Sinjar
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UNSC visit to Mali, Burkina Faso likely to prompt political over military focus as terrorism risk spreads
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Despite resignation, Nazarbayev likely to retain political influence over Kazakh leadership, including facilitation of dynastic power transfer
