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Martial law extension, activation of 11th Infantry Division, to reduce risk of large-scale terrorist attacks in Mindanao
A villager standing with a weapon on his farm in September 2018 in Datu Piang, Maguindanao. Datu Piang town is one of the oldest towns in central Mindanao and has been under the control and protection of the MILF against IS forces and influence. Source: Jes Aznar / StringerSVBIED attack near Iran’s Chabahar port reflects militants’ targeting of strategic locations, but disruption to cargo unlikely
The scene following a suicide car bombing in front of the police headquarters in Chabahar, southeastern Iran, on 6 December. Source: STR/AFP/Getty ImagesAttempted assault on Chinese consulate in Pakistan indicates improving separatist capability to target Chinese interests
Pakistani Rangers stand in front of the Chinese consulate after an attack in Karachi on 23 November 2018. Source: Asif Hassan/AFP/Getty ImagesNew Caledonia’s probable rejection of independence likely to trigger violent protests by indigenous youths, particularly affecting mining
A nickel mine near Voh on the French island of New Caledonia, 17 November 2014. Source: Alain Jocard/AFP/Getty Images
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Assassination attempt against Afghan Taliban leader indicates factional conflict and greater Islamic State capability after US withdrawal
On 16 August, at least four people were killed in an improvised explosive device (IED) attack at a mosque in Kuchlak in Pakistan’s Balochistan province. Among the dead was the brother of Afghan Taliban leader Haibatullah Akhunzada, who was also scheduled to be at the mosque, according to
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Conditions and tensions at refugee camp in Syria's Hasaka will likely create an incubator for Islamic State ideology
Key Points Numerous incidents at the Al Hawl refugee camp in Syria’s Hasaka governorate have demonstrated the residual Islamic State sympathies of family members of fighters resident at the camp. Although the conditions at the camp will likely continue to incubate these sympathies, and
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Levels of violence remain high in Afghanistan despite peace talks’ progress
Key Points The US military suffered its 10th fatality of the year to date in combat operations in Afghanistan on 13 July, leaving 2019 on course to eclipse the totals recorded during the preceding two years. The fatality came amid a rising current of recent mass-casualty violence by the Taliban,
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End of conscription exemption likely to drive increased insurgent violence in southern Syria
Key Points After the Syrian government ended the temporary exemption from military conscription in Deraa, arrests of those avoiding it are likely to contribute to an increase in insurgent attacks against security forces. Protests and low-level attacks against security forces have increased
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Several dozen casualties in Taliban attack in Kabul
Several people were killed and more than 90 others, including children, injured when Taliban fighters launched an attack against a government building on 1 July in an area of the Afghan capital, Kabul, housing military and government buildings, according to local media reports. The attack began
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Social media changes force OSINT practitioners to adapt
An apparent crackdown by social media platforms prompted concern in the OSINT community in June 2019. Veli-Pekka Kivimäki examines the changes that took place and assesses the outlook for the work of OSINT practitioners -
Risk of religious conflict in Sri Lanka increases
The April 2019 terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka focused attention on the unresolved communal tensions affecting the country. Derek Henry Flood examines the complex ethno-linguistic and religious divisions that are likely to shape the risk of further violence, potentially between Muslim and Buddhist communities -
Extreme right activists build transnational narratives online
The threat posed by the extreme right has gained greater prominence in 2019. Mark Wilson surveys the online extreme-right landscape, examines the narratives being deployed among users from different countries, and assesses how these communities are likely to evolve
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Military Capabilities Military Capabilities
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Russian exercise ‘Centre 2019’ to involve 128,000 troops from seven nations
The ‘Centre 2019’ exercise scheduled by Russia for 16–21 September is expected to involve at least 128,000 personnel from seven nations, as well as 600 aircraft and up to 450 artillery systems, the TASS news agency reported on 20 August, citing the Russian Ministry of Defence Press
CBRN Assessment CBRN Assessment
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Kim continues to let his missiles do the talking
Key Points North Korea has continued to mount a series of weapon tests The tests have been a reaction to US-South Korean military drills and most recently a speech by the South Korean president North Korea test-fired two more missiles into the waters off its east coast on 16 August while
Jane's Intelligence Review Jane's Intelligence Review
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Azerbaijan’s partial replacement of troops with border guards likely indicates de-escalatory posture towards Armenia, reducing war risks
Key Points While the Border Guards commander claims that the order reflects their high standard of combat-readiness, IHS Markit assesses that Aliyev’s move is likely based on the calculus that, after winning Armenia’s recent early general election by a landslide, Prime Minister Nikol
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Assassination attempt against Afghan Taliban leader indicates factional conflict and greater Islamic State capability after US withdrawal
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Conditions and tensions at refugee camp in Syria's Hasaka will likely create an incubator for Islamic State ideology
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Levels of violence remain high in Afghanistan despite peace talks’ progress
