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New NATO mission in Iraq to focus on training defence sector
US soldiers fire a howitzer in Iraq on 12 August 2018, while supporting Iraqi forces as part of Operation ‘Inherent Resolve’. A new, non-combat NATO mission in the country will be fully stood up in early 2019. Source: US ArmyIndia, Indonesia hold inaugural edition of Exercise ‘Samudra Shakti’
An Indonesian Navy Diponegoro-class corvette, similar to the one that is taking part in the inaugural edition of Exercise ‘Samudra Shakti’ with the Indian Navy. Source: IHS Markit/Ridzwan RahmatUAE-backed Yemeni operation making progress in Al-Hudaydah
MaxxPro armoured vehicles operated by UAE-backed Yemeni forces are seen in the outskirts of Al-Hudaydah on 8 November. Source: Khaled Ziad/AFP/Getty ImagesUS Army secretary: Permanently forward basing more units would hinder training
US Army soldiers in 155th Armored Brigade Combat Team participate in a combined live-fire exercise near Alexandria, Egypt, in September 2018. While the force is stressed, Esper said if the service moved away from rotational deployments and towards forward basing more units permanently, training would take a hit. Source: US Army
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Illegal fuel syphoning rises in Colombia, raising damage risk to pipelines and violence against staff, security forces
Event On 12 November 2018, two people were injured during confrontations between criminals selling contraband fuel and members of the armed forces in Herrán, Norte de Santander. It is unclear whether the fuel was smuggled across the border from Venezuela or whether it was stolen domestically.
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Intensifying fighting in northern Chad raises likelihood of troop withdrawal from regional counter-terrorism operations, reducing their effectiveness
Event Several people were killed in a government offensive on 13 November against an armed self-defence group at Miski in northern Chad. The security forces’ operation was led by President Idriss Déby’s son Mahamat, who heads the elite presidential guard (Direction Generale de
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No timeline set for US withdrawal from INF Treaty
US leaders are in talks with major allies and partner nations about how to proceed if the US withdraws from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), according to the US State Department’s Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security Andrea Thompson. However, a
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Pentagon to detail spending cut trade-offs for the White House
By early December Pentagon leaders will layout two fiscal year 2020 (FY 2020) national security budgets for US President Donald Trump and detail the trade-offs associated with shrinking the budget by USD33 billion, said Deputy Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan. Speaking with Pentagon reporters
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Russian defence minister outlines military development
The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) is intensifying training of military personnel, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said in a brief review of Russia's military development on 6 November. “This year, the Ground Forces [SV] have conducted more than 3,800 battalion-level tactical exercises.
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New Russian missile likely to be part of anti-satellite system
The appearance in September of photographs of a new missile carried on a Russian MiG-31 prompted widespread speculation as to the system's purpose. Malcolm Claus examines the new missile and assesses its intended role -
Winning the firefight: IFV cannons evolve
Samuel Cranny-Evans and Mark Cazalet examine the IFV weapon systems that have shaped modern conflicts, and how future firefights might be won -
Innovation by design: The French Navy’s FTI frigate programme
The French Navy's new Frégate de Taille Intermédiaire will embody innovative features that will strike a balance between cost and capability, as Richard Scott reports
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DRC opposition’s probable contesting of upcoming election results raises likelihood of limited protests, new transitional political authority
Key Points DRC’s upcoming elections, delayed from November 2016 and now scheduled for 23 December, will likely be held on time, with any (less likely) delays pushing it back no further than April 2019. The validity of the election result will likely be contested by the opposition, but
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Illegal fuel syphoning rises in Colombia, raising damage risk to pipelines and violence against staff, security forces
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Intensifying fighting in northern Chad raises likelihood of troop withdrawal from regional counter-terrorism operations, reducing their effectiveness
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Violent risks intelligence bulletin – 13 November 2018
Military Capabilities Military Capabilities
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New NATO mission in Iraq to focus on training defence sector
A new, non-combat NATO-led mission will be stood up in Iraq next year to provide support to the country’s defence sector. UK Army Major General Christopher Ghika, the Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve’s (CJTF-OIR’s) deputy commander for strategy and information,
CBRN Assessment CBRN Assessment
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North Korea willing to ‘permanently dismantle’ Yongbyon nuclear site
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has expressed his willingness to continue to take measures towards his country's denuclearisation, including the permanent dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities, where a 5 MWe plutonium-producing reactor is located. The move was announced on 19
Terrorism & Insurgency Terrorism & Insurgency
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New Caledonia’s probable rejection of independence likely to trigger violent protests by indigenous youths, particularly affecting mining
Key Points Concerns among the majority of the public in New Caledonia regarding the territory’s economic dependence on France are highly likely to offset any desire for full sovereignty, resulting in a vote to remain part of France. There is a high risk of violence from disaffected
Jane's Intelligence Review Jane's Intelligence Review
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German Chancellor Merkel’s resignation as CDU party leader unlikely to reduce risk of early elections in 12-month outlook
Key Points The CDU’s renewal will highly depend on whether Merkel’s successor will largely continue with her centrist policy direction or move the party back further to the right. There is a heightened risk of early elections in the 12-month-outlook as the CDU’s junior coalition
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Coalition capture of Yemen’s Hodeidah city likely, despite US call for ceasefire and ongoing UN mediation efforts
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Homicides and theft rising in Mexico’s San Luis Potosí; narco-message emergence raises collateral death and injury risks
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UN sanctions relief for Eritrea this month would decrease tax risks, indicate accelerating normalisation of international relations
