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Zambia denies USD400 million Israeli deal
The ZAF already operates sophisticated L-15 jets, so arguably does not need F-5s supplied by the Israeli company Elbit. Source: IHS Markit/Patrick AllenElectoral fraud accusations by Mozambique’s opposition RENAMO unlikely to lead to return to civil war
Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi casts his ballot at a Maputo polling station during local elections on 10 October. RENAMO has accused FRELIMO of falsifying results. Source: Mauro Vombe/AFP/Getty ImagesShort-lived mutiny indicates deteriorating Ethiopian military chain of command, but ruling coalition will likely remain in power
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed speaking at a press conference in Addis Ababa on 25 August. More than 200 Ethiopian soldiers marched to Ahmed's office to air grievances on 10 October. Source: Michael Tewelde/AFP/Getty ImagesNigerian opposition selecting former vice-president as presidential candidate indicates high probability of early 2019 change of government
Atiku Abubakar raises his hands after winning the People's Democratic Party's presidential ticket at the party convention in Port Harcourt on 6 October. Source: Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP/Getty Images
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Trilateral military talks positive, but bilateral talks between two Koreas highlight South Korean policy differences with US
Event On 17 October, the first talks between US, South Korean, and North Korean military representatives were held following summits between their leaders in the first half of 2018. North Korean and South Korean colonels were joined by the secretary of the United Nations Command (UNC) Military
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India and China to resume annual HiH joint military exercise
The armies of India and China will resume their annual ‘Hand-In-Hand’ (HiH) joint military exercise more than a year after the 2017 iteration was cancelled following a 72 day-long stand-off between the two countries along their disputed borders and those of the neighbouring Himalayan
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Indian Air Force pilots begin Chinook training
Four Indian Air Force (IAF) pilots and an equal number of flight engineers have begun receiving instruction in the United States to operate and maintain Boeing CH-47F Chinook heavy-lift helicopters, 15 of which are set to enter service with the IAF from mid-2019. Officials told Jane's that the
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Kandahar police chief reportedly killed in attack
The head of police in the southern Afghan province of Kandahar has reportedly been killed in a shooting on 18 October following a meeting held at the residence of the provincial governor that was also attended by US Army General Austin Miller, the commander of the NATO-led ‘Resolute
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Kerch shooting provides Russia with potential pretext for ‘punishing’ Ukraine, including further harassment in Sea of Azov
Event On 17 October 2018, in Kerch, Crimea, an armed 18-year-old student broke into an industrial college, opened fire with an assault rifle, killing 20, and then committed suicide. Over 50 people were wounded, including 15 in critical condition caused by the shooting and the explosion of a
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Europe steps up EU policing strategy
In 2018, the European Union began to implement its third Policy Cycle on Serious and Organised Crime. Matthew Redhead examines the drive in Brussels towards greater policing co-ordination as criminals adopt new technologies and Brexit approaches -
Building NATO’s new eastern front: The eFP in Europe
In 2016 NATO leaders agreed to despatch multinational battlegroups to the Baltic states and Poland under the enhanced Forward Presence initiative. Since then NATO deployments to Eastern Europe have accelerated. Tim Ripley charts the progress of efforts to build up allied defences in the region -
Russia develops co-orbital anti-satellite capability
Russia appears to be developing a co-orbital anti-satellite system. Bart Hendrickx examines the evidence in open sources about Russia’s satellite development programmes that points to the existence of the project
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Country Risk Country Risk
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Electoral fraud accusations by Mozambique’s opposition RENAMO unlikely to lead to return to civil war
Key Points Electoral disputes are likely to be contested politically and legally, including with threats to pull out of peace negotiations, but are unlikely to lead to a resumption of fighting between RENAMO and government forces. A final peace agreement between RENAMO and FRELIMO is likely prior
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Trilateral military talks positive, but bilateral talks between two Koreas highlight South Korean policy differences with US
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US lawmakers throw Saudi arms sales on the chopping block
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Reopening of borders between Syria and Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon indicate normalising relations and President Assad’s hold on power
Military Capabilities Military Capabilities
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Zambia denies USD400 million Israeli deal
Zambia’s defence minister has released a statement denying a report that his government is close to signing a second USD400 million deal with Israeli companies. Africa Confidential reported on 12 October that the new deal will be funded by Israel’s Bank Hapoalim and is believed to
CBRN Assessment CBRN Assessment
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North Korea willing to ‘permanently dismantle’ Yongbyon nuclear site
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has expressed his willingness to continue to take measures towards his country's denuclearisation, including the permanent dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities, where a 5 MWe plutonium-producing reactor is located. The move was announced on 19
Terrorism & Insurgency Terrorism & Insurgency
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New Caledonia’s probable rejection of independence likely to trigger violent protests by indigenous youths, particularly affecting mining
Key Points Concerns among the majority of the public in New Caledonia regarding the territory’s economic dependence on France are highly likely to offset any desire for full sovereignty, resulting in a vote to remain part of France. There is a high risk of violence from disaffected
Jane's Intelligence Review Jane's Intelligence Review
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Electoral fraud accusations by Mozambique’s opposition RENAMO unlikely to lead to return to civil war
Key Points Electoral disputes are likely to be contested politically and legally, including with threats to pull out of peace negotiations, but are unlikely to lead to a resumption of fighting between RENAMO and government forces. A final peace agreement between RENAMO and FRELIMO is likely prior
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Trilateral military talks positive, but bilateral talks between two Koreas highlight South Korean policy differences with US
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Kerch shooting provides Russia with potential pretext for ‘punishing’ Ukraine, including further harassment in Sea of Azov
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Reopening of borders between Syria and Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon indicate normalising relations and President Assad’s hold on power
