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Short-lived mutiny indicates deteriorating Ethiopian military chain of command, but ruling coalition will likely remain in power
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed speaking at a press conference in Addis Ababa on 25 August. More than 200 Ethiopian soldiers marched to Ahmed's office to air grievances on 10 October. Source: Michael Tewelde/AFP/Getty ImagesNigerian opposition selecting former vice-president as presidential candidate indicates high probability of early 2019 change of government
Atiku Abubakar raises his hands after winning the People's Democratic Party's presidential ticket at the party convention in Port Harcourt on 6 October. Source: Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP/Getty ImagesAustralia, Singapore conduct inaugural MUM-T collaboration at bilateral naval drills
HMAS Stuart and RSS Vigour at Exercise 'Singaroo' 2018 Source: Singapore Ministry of DefenceBroad post-election coalition likely to elevate Latvian government instability risks and obstruct swift legislative approvals
Leader of Harmony Nils Usakovs (R) and leaders of the New Conservative party (L) are seen on pre-election posters in Riga, Latvia on 3 October 2018. Source: ILMARS ZNOTINS/AFP/Getty Images
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NATO’s rapid reaction force coming into its own as an interoperability testbed
NATO’s growing deterrence posture is pushing the allies’ interoperability problems to the fore in ways not seen since the Cold War years, but with a twist. It is less a matter of corps-to-corps identification of issues between the allies and more about what works or does not work in very
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Russian MoD details development of military districts
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu detailed the development of the Central Military District (CMD), Southern Military District (SMD), and Eastern Military District (EMD) during a Ministry of Defence (MoD) board meeting on 10 October in Moscow. “Each of the three districts receives up to
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Civilian casualties from airstrikes in Afghanistan up 39%, says UN
The number of civilian casualties in Afghanistan caused by airstrikes rose by 39% in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period in 2017, according to a 10 October report issued by the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). The mission documented 649 civilian
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Opposition split over election candidacy strengthens Senegalese president’s chances of second term in February 2019 polls
Event Former foreign and justice minister Madické Niang has resigned from the former ruling Senegalese Democratic Party (Parti Démocratique Sénégalais: PDS) after announcing he intends to compete for the presidency in the February 2019 election. Niang departed on 5 October, but
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US pastor’s release insufficient to restore US-Turkey alliance, which will depend on resolution of multiple sticking points
Event On 12 October, US pastor Andrew Brunson was flown back from Turkey to the United States following his release by a Turkish court, having been imprisoned since 2016 under charges of terrorism and espionage. Describing the charges as politically driven, the Trump administration had responded
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Europe steps up EU policing strategy
In 2018, the European Union began to implement its third Policy Cycle on Serious and Organised Crime. Matthew Redhead examines the drive in Brussels towards greater policing co-ordination as criminals adopt new technologies and Brexit approaches -
Building NATO’s new eastern front: The eFP in Europe
In 2016 NATO leaders agreed to despatch multinational battlegroups to the Baltic states and Poland under the enhanced Forward Presence initiative. Since then NATO deployments to Eastern Europe have accelerated. Tim Ripley charts the progress of efforts to build up allied defences in the region -
Russia develops co-orbital anti-satellite capability
Russia appears to be developing a co-orbital anti-satellite system. Bart Hendrickx examines the evidence in open sources about Russia’s satellite development programmes that points to the existence of the project
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Short-lived mutiny indicates deteriorating Ethiopian military chain of command, but ruling coalition will likely remain in power
Key Points The short-lived mutiny by the Ethiopian soldiers was likely motivated by grievances stemming from military reforms that have eroded the historical dominance of senior ethnic-Tigrayan commanders. The military reforms will continue and it is unlikely that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will be
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Civilian casualties from airstrikes in Afghanistan up 39%, says UN
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Opposition split over election candidacy strengthens Senegalese president’s chances of second term in February 2019 polls
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US pastor’s release insufficient to restore US-Turkey alliance, which will depend on resolution of multiple sticking points
Military Capabilities Military Capabilities
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Australia, Singapore conduct inaugural MUM-T collaboration at bilateral naval drills
Key Points The navies of Australia and Singapore have successfully conducted their first-ever combined manned-unmanned teaming operation involving a helicopter and a UAV The operation underscores the strong level of interoperability and commonality between both services In a sign of growing
CBRN Assessment CBRN Assessment
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North Korea willing to ‘permanently dismantle’ Yongbyon nuclear site
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has expressed his willingness to continue to take measures towards his country's denuclearisation, including the permanent dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities, where a 5 MWe plutonium-producing reactor is located. The move was announced on 19
Terrorism & Insurgency Terrorism & Insurgency
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New Caledonia’s probable rejection of independence likely to trigger violent protests by indigenous youths, particularly affecting mining
Key Points Concerns among the majority of the public in New Caledonia regarding the territory’s economic dependence on France are highly likely to offset any desire for full sovereignty, resulting in a vote to remain part of France. There is a high risk of violence from disaffected
Jane's Intelligence Review Jane's Intelligence Review
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Short-lived mutiny indicates deteriorating Ethiopian military chain of command, but ruling coalition will likely remain in power
Key Points The short-lived mutiny by the Ethiopian soldiers was likely motivated by grievances stemming from military reforms that have eroded the historical dominance of senior ethnic-Tigrayan commanders. The military reforms will continue and it is unlikely that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will be
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Opposition split over election candidacy strengthens Senegalese president’s chances of second term in February 2019 polls
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US pastor’s release insufficient to restore US-Turkey alliance, which will depend on resolution of multiple sticking points
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Gulf financial support for Bahrain likely conditional on tax increases and pension reform, increasing likelihood of protests
