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Pentagon notes Chinese naval global expansion and regional control
China's carrier group conducted its first combat exercise in the western Pacific in April Source: Chinese MNDIran likely to turn to Russia, Turkey, and China to offset sanctions, not risk war over Hormuz
Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani meet at a Caspian Sea littoral states' summit in Aktau, Kazakhstan, on 12 August. Source: Iranian Presidency/Handout/Anadolu Agency/Getty ImagesUAE hits back at AQAP payoff report
Brigadier Musallam al-Rashidi on 13 August 2018 shows a slide with a breakdown of the Yemeni forces that the UAE has trained. Source: WAMRomanian protests likely to prompt another government reshuffle, reducing capacity to pass new legislation
Riot police launch water cannons against protesters in front of government headquarters in Bucharest, Romania, on 10 August. Source: Adrian Catu/AFP/Getty Images
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Cabinet reshuffle in Belarus likely to lead to more pro-business economic policies aimed at attracting investment
Event On 18 August 2018, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka dismissed Prime Minister Andrei Kabiakou and reshuffled the cabinet. The president appointed Siarhei Rumas, a 48-year-old career banker, as the new prime minister. Lukashenka also appointed four new deputy prime ministers and four
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Israel ceasefire with Hamas reduces likelihood of war, but a lasting peace settlement for Gaza is unlikely
Key Points The latest ceasefire is likely to hold for at least several weeks unless a more extensive agreement can be agreed between Hamas and Israel. Acceptance by the Palestinian Authority (PA) is unlikely as President Mahmoud Abbas rejects any ceasefire that serves to treat Hamas as an
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Australian Army acquires DJI Phantom 4 UAVs
The Australian Army (AA) has acquired the DJI Phantom 4 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) as the service seeks to broaden its reconnaissance and situational awareness capabilities. The Department of Defence (DoD) in Canberra announced in a statement that Sydney-based personnel of the 17th Combat
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Venezuelan government’s economic measures to increase operational disruptions, tax, and protest risks
Event The Venezuelan government will introduce a new currency known as the Sovereign Bolivar (BsS) on 20 August in an effort to contain inflation, which the International Monetary Fund expects at 1 million per cent by year-end 2018. The BsS will be pegged to the Petro, a cryptocurrency initiative
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US expects China’s marine corps to grow to more than 30,000 personnel
The US Department of Defense (DoD) expects the size of China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy Marine Corps (PLANMC) to grow to more than 30,000 personnel by 2020, the DoD said in its 2018 China Military Power Report to the US Congress. Released on 16 August, the 130 page-long report
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Syrian Kurds remain steadfast in seeking autonomy
The majority-Kurdish areas east of the Euphrates in Syria are holding out for a deal with Damascus on autonomy. Jonathan Spyer reports from the region on its strategic importance for the country's future -
Survival of the fittest: pods and pylons still in vogue for fast jet self-protection
Add-on countermeasures systems continue to make an important contribution to combat aircraft survivability in hostile airspace. Richard Scott reports -
Heavy armour heritage: The evolution of the MBT and the search for its successor
Recent conflicts in Iraq, Syria, and Ukraine have demonstrated the continued effectiveness of MBTs on the twenty-first century battlefield. Sam Cranny-Evans explores how tank technology is evolving to ensure these platforms remain relevant
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Country Risk Country Risk
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Pentagon notes Chinese naval global expansion and regional control
The Pentagon’s recent annual report on the Chinese military spotlights growing Chinese naval capability, underscoring the narrowing gap between the Asian power’s maritime forces and those of the US Navy (USN), as well as drawing attention to China’s increasing dominance in the
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Cabinet reshuffle in Belarus likely to lead to more pro-business economic policies aimed at attracting investment
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Israel ceasefire with Hamas reduces likelihood of war, but a lasting peace settlement for Gaza is unlikely
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Venezuelan government’s economic measures to increase operational disruptions, tax, and protest risks
Military Capabilities Military Capabilities
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Pentagon notes Chinese naval global expansion and regional control
The Pentagon’s recent annual report on the Chinese military spotlights growing Chinese naval capability, underscoring the narrowing gap between the Asian power’s maritime forces and those of the US Navy (USN), as well as drawing attention to China’s increasing dominance in the
CBRN Assessment CBRN Assessment
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Indian compliance with aggressive US sanctions on crude exports increases risk of Iran resuming nuclear programme
Key Points This position marks a significant shift in US sanctions enforcement policy; during the 2012–15 sanctions period under former US president Barack Obama’s administration, the importers of Iranian crude oil qualified for waivers from US sanctions if they demonstrated
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US sanctions on Turkish ministers probably intended for US domestic political consumption; broader economic sanctions highly unlikely
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North Korean missile production highlights risk of returning hostility; US will not want talks to fail
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Update: US legislation proposes temporarily banning F-35 deliveries to Turkey
Terrorism & Insurgency Terrorism & Insurgency
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LNA’s bid to control Libyan national institutions increases risk of renewed fighting between western and eastern militias
Key Points On 25 June, Haftar handed over the control of Ras Lanuf and es-Sider oil ports to the eastern National Oil Corporation (NOC), which reports to the eastern-based government, which is not recognised internationally. In response, the Tripoli-based NOC declared force majeure on loadings from
Jane's Intelligence Review Jane's Intelligence Review
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Iran likely to turn to Russia, Turkey, and China to offset sanctions, not risk war over Hormuz
Key Points Iran is trying to consolidate politically and appease protesters to prevent sanctions from destabilising the country; this risks backfiring and reducing leadership cohesion. Iran will turn to China, Russia, and Turkey to reduce the impact of sanctions, but all three countries are
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Cabinet reshuffle in Belarus likely to lead to more pro-business economic policies aimed at attracting investment
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Israel ceasefire with Hamas reduces likelihood of war, but a lasting peace settlement for Gaza is unlikely
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Venezuelan government’s economic measures to increase operational disruptions, tax, and protest risks
