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Japan to spend more than USD240 billion on defence over next five years
Japanese helicopter carrier JS Izumo (DDH-183). Tokyo formally approved plans on 18 December to convert the country's two Izumo-class vessels into multirole aircraft carriers from which F-35Bs can be operated. Source: JMSDFUS warns Turkey against offensive into northeast Syria
One of several US military positions around Manbij is seen on 8 May. The establishment of several more observation posts on the Turkish border will stretch the 2,000 personnel that the US military says it has in Syria. Source: Delil Souleiman/AFP/Getty ImagesSVBIED attack near Iran’s Chabahar port reflects militants’ targeting of strategic locations, but disruption to cargo unlikely
The scene following a suicide car bombing in front of the police headquarters in Chabahar, southeastern Iran, on 6 December. Source: STR/AFP/Getty ImagesImpeachment of Somalia’s president probably unsuccessful, opposition to security handover growing and port contracts face renegotiation risk
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (right) shakes hands with Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed at Vahdettin Mansion in Istanbul on 23 November. Impeachment of Mohamed would put Turkish port management contracts in Somalia at risk of renegotiation. Source: Kayhan Ozer/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
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Kosovo begins to form army
Kosovo’s parliament in Priština approved legislation on 14 December to establish a defence ministry and transform the lightly-armed 2,500-strong Kosovo Security Force (KSF) into a full-fledged 5,000-strong armed force with 3,000 reservists. The parliamentary vote was boycotted by
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India to conduct military exercises with several African states in March
The Indian Army (IA) is seeking to deepen its defence ties with the armies of about a dozen African countries by conducting joint training and military exercises with them in early 2019. Official sources told Jane’s that the armies of Ghana, Kenya, South Africa, and Tanzania, among others,
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Russian official says S-300V4 deterring coalition aircraft in northeast Syria
The deployment of an S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile system has reduced US-led coalition air activity over northeast Syria, Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov told reporters on 17 December after a visit to the Middle East country. While Russian news organisation presumed this was a
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Strike Brigade experimentation to look at security operations
Security operations exercises looking at how to counter hybrid warfare threats will be carried out by the British Army’s strike experimentation organisations in 2019 as part of ongoing efforts to prepare for the formation of the service’s two Strike Brigades and component Strike-roled
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US Navy faces headwinds as it struggles to maintain its fleet
The US Navy (USN) is struggling to properly maintain its fleet because of a shortage of space in its shipyards, the spectre of a possible sequester, and the likely future effects of climate change, USN and government watchdog officials have told US lawmakers. “Completing maintenance on time
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Potential for wider Iranian Kurdish insurgency increases
Iranian Kurdish insurgents are stepping up their military activities against the government in Tehran. Dr Jonathan Spyer reports from northern Iraq on the fallout from Iranian action against the PDKI and KDP-I -
OSINT Snapshot: Procurement files detail plans for new Russian SIGINT system
Jane's OSINT snapshots are brief analyses of recent national security-related news using lesser-visited online sources. Bart Hendrickx uses Russian-language procurement documents and academic papers to trace the outlines of a new Russian signals intelligence system -
Annual Defence Report 2018: Middle East & Africa
Syria has stabilised, but tensions remain on the front lines of the areas of influence carved out by external powers. Meanwhile, the war in Yemen has come into sharper focus, with the US using Iran's support for the rebels to bolster its efforts to isolate Tehran even as the growing civilian death toll threatens arms exports to the Arab Gulf countries. Jeremy Binnie reports
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US warns Turkey against offensive into northeast Syria
Key Points The US DoD is taking Turkish threats to invade northeast Syria seriously It has confirmed that it has now established an unspecified number of observation posts on the Syrian–Turkish border to deter incursions The US Department of Defense (DoD) indicated on 12 December that it is
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Russian official says S-300V4 deterring coalition aircraft in northeast Syria
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West Bank violence likely Hamas attempt to distract from Gaza and discredit Palestinian Authority, violent protests likely
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Anti-gang interventions in Guatemala unlikely to reduce business-targeted extortions in 2019, particularly with cargo and transport companies
Military Capabilities Military Capabilities
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Japan to spend more than USD240 billion on defence over next five years
The cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on 18 December formally approved a plan to spend JPY27.47 trillion (USD242.7 billion) on defence over the next five years, but hopes that this figure can be brought down by about JPY1.97 trillion through cost-cutting measures. The government’s
CBRN Assessment CBRN Assessment
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North Korea willing to ‘permanently dismantle’ Yongbyon nuclear site
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has expressed his willingness to continue to take measures towards his country's denuclearisation, including the permanent dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities, where a 5 MWe plutonium-producing reactor is located. The move was announced on 19
Terrorism & Insurgency Terrorism & Insurgency
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SVBIED attack near Iran’s Chabahar port reflects militants’ targeting of strategic locations, but disruption to cargo unlikely
Key Points Although primarily motivated by local ethno-religious grievances, the insurgency in Sistan-Baluchestan province is increasingly presenting as part of the broader transnational militant Islamist movement. Increased communications and co-ordination between locally based insurgent groups
Jane's Intelligence Review Jane's Intelligence Review
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SVBIED attack near Iran’s Chabahar port reflects militants’ targeting of strategic locations, but disruption to cargo unlikely
Key Points Although primarily motivated by local ethno-religious grievances, the insurgency in Sistan-Baluchestan province is increasingly presenting as part of the broader transnational militant Islamist movement. Increased communications and co-ordination between locally based insurgent groups
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West Bank violence likely Hamas attempt to distract from Gaza and discredit Palestinian Authority, violent protests likely
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Anti-gang interventions in Guatemala unlikely to reduce business-targeted extortions in 2019, particularly with cargo and transport companies
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Increased likelihood of budget deal with Iraqi central government lowers non-payment risks for contracts awarded by KRG
