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Japan to spend more than USD240 billion on defence over next five years
Japanese helicopter carrier JS Izumo (DDH-183). Tokyo formally approved plans on 18 December to convert the country's two Izumo-class vessels into multirole aircraft carriers from which F-35Bs can be operated. Source: JMSDFUS warns Turkey against offensive into northeast Syria
One of several US military positions around Manbij is seen on 8 May. The establishment of several more observation posts on the Turkish border will stretch the 2,000 personnel that the US military says it has in Syria. Source: Delil Souleiman/AFP/Getty ImagesSVBIED attack near Iran’s Chabahar port reflects militants’ targeting of strategic locations, but disruption to cargo unlikely
The scene following a suicide car bombing in front of the police headquarters in Chabahar, southeastern Iran, on 6 December. Source: STR/AFP/Getty ImagesImpeachment of Somalia’s president probably unsuccessful, opposition to security handover growing and port contracts face renegotiation risk
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (right) shakes hands with Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed at Vahdettin Mansion in Istanbul on 23 November. Impeachment of Mohamed would put Turkish port management contracts in Somalia at risk of renegotiation. Source: Kayhan Ozer/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
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Analysis: Qatar parades Rheinmetall Lynx IFV
Analysis A Rheinmetall Lynx infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) was seen for the first time in Qatar’s annual National Day parade on 18 December, possibly because it is being tested in the Gulf state. The Lynx has yet to enter production, with Rheinmetall reporting that it is targeting
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Brexit unlikely to affect bilateral UK-France defence and security co-operation
Key Points Despite Brexit, Anglo-French bilateral defence and security co-operation remains crucially important to both countries, and also for the wider European continent and NATO. Meaningful security and intelligence co-operation takes place at a bilateral level, but Brexit’s effects will
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Nigeria’s condemnation of civil society organisations likely to increase kidnap, death and injury risks for NGO workers
Event The Nigerian government and military have severely criticised the activities of Amnesty International (AI) after it published on 17 December a report on violence between farmers and herdsmen which accused the authorities of “failing in their obligation to protect the lives of
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Violent protests likely to follow DRC’s 23 December elections; security response most effective in Kinshasa and Lubumbashi
Key Points DRC security forces in Kinshasa and Lubumbashi are likely to contain any unrest, which would probably be limited to three days’ duration, so ensuring incidents remained away from the city centres and key commercial and government neighbourhoods. Other neighbourhoods in these
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UK releases Modernising Defence Programme
UK Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson presented the long-awaited Modernising Defence Programme (MDP) to the House of Commons on 18 December. The report is entitled ‘Mobilising, Modernising & Transforming Defence’, reflecting its three priorities, which Williamson identified as:
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Potential for wider Iranian Kurdish insurgency increases
Iranian Kurdish insurgents are stepping up their military activities against the government in Tehran. Dr Jonathan Spyer reports from northern Iraq on the fallout from Iranian action against the PDKI and KDP-I -
OSINT Snapshot: Procurement files detail plans for new Russian SIGINT system
Jane's OSINT snapshots are brief analyses of recent national security-related news using lesser-visited online sources. Bart Hendrickx uses Russian-language procurement documents and academic papers to trace the outlines of a new Russian signals intelligence system -
Annual Defence Report 2018: Middle East & Africa
Syria has stabilised, but tensions remain on the front lines of the areas of influence carved out by external powers. Meanwhile, the war in Yemen has come into sharper focus, with the US using Iran's support for the rebels to bolster its efforts to isolate Tehran even as the growing civilian death toll threatens arms exports to the Arab Gulf countries. Jeremy Binnie reports
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US warns Turkey against offensive into northeast Syria
Key Points The US DoD is taking Turkish threats to invade northeast Syria seriously It has confirmed that it has now established an unspecified number of observation posts on the Syrian–Turkish border to deter incursions The US Department of Defense (DoD) indicated on 12 December that it is
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Brexit unlikely to affect bilateral UK-France defence and security co-operation
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Nigeria’s condemnation of civil society organisations likely to increase kidnap, death and injury risks for NGO workers
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Violent protests likely to follow DRC’s 23 December elections; security response most effective in Kinshasa and Lubumbashi
Military Capabilities Military Capabilities
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Japan to spend more than USD240 billion on defence over next five years
The cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on 18 December formally approved a plan to spend JPY27.47 trillion (USD242.7 billion) on defence over the next five years, but hopes that this figure can be brought down by about JPY1.97 trillion through cost-cutting measures. The government’s
CBRN Assessment CBRN Assessment
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North Korea willing to ‘permanently dismantle’ Yongbyon nuclear site
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has expressed his willingness to continue to take measures towards his country's denuclearisation, including the permanent dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities, where a 5 MWe plutonium-producing reactor is located. The move was announced on 19
Terrorism & Insurgency Terrorism & Insurgency
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SVBIED attack near Iran’s Chabahar port reflects militants’ targeting of strategic locations, but disruption to cargo unlikely
Key Points Although primarily motivated by local ethno-religious grievances, the insurgency in Sistan-Baluchestan province is increasingly presenting as part of the broader transnational militant Islamist movement. Increased communications and co-ordination between locally based insurgent groups
Jane's Intelligence Review Jane's Intelligence Review
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SVBIED attack near Iran’s Chabahar port reflects militants’ targeting of strategic locations, but disruption to cargo unlikely
Key Points Although primarily motivated by local ethno-religious grievances, the insurgency in Sistan-Baluchestan province is increasingly presenting as part of the broader transnational militant Islamist movement. Increased communications and co-ordination between locally based insurgent groups
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Brexit unlikely to affect bilateral UK-France defence and security co-operation
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Nigeria’s condemnation of civil society organisations likely to increase kidnap, death and injury risks for NGO workers
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Violent protests likely to follow DRC’s 23 December elections; security response most effective in Kinshasa and Lubumbashi
