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Momentum builds to Block US arms sales to Saudi Arabia
US President Donald Trump hosts Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia at the White House. Source: Kevin Dietsch-Pool/Getty ImagesTop US lawmaker calls for clarity on legal basis for collective defence
A US soldier assigned to 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division, ground, guides a M2A3 Bradley Fighting Vehicle during a ‘Table XII’ live-fire exercise in Novo Selo Training Area, Bulgaria, on 23 August. The service is currently looking to develop and field new land vehicles under the Next-Generation Combat Vehicles effort. Source: US Army National GuardZambia denies USD400 million Israeli deal
The ZAF already operates sophisticated L-15 jets, so arguably does not need F-5s supplied by the Israeli company Elbit. Source: IHS Markit/Patrick AllenElectoral fraud accusations by Mozambique’s opposition RENAMO unlikely to lead to return to civil war
Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi casts his ballot at a Maputo polling station during local elections on 10 October. RENAMO has accused FRELIMO of falsifying results. Source: Mauro Vombe/AFP/Getty Images
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India, Russia seek to enhance military ties
India and Russia are launching a new department under the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Military Technical Co-operation (IRIGC-MTC) aimed at “vigorously” deepening bilateral defence ties, official sources told Jane’s on 18 October. The department is expected to
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ASEAN adopts guidelines for air encounters between military aircraft
Defence ministers of the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have adopted a set of guidelines designed to help reduce the likelihood of multilateral encounters or incidents involving ASEAN states’ military aircraft escalating into conflict because of
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Ethiopia advances economic and military reforms, unlikely to split ruling coalition before 2020 election
Key Points The cabinet reshuffle advanced the Ethiopian government’s stated economic and military reforms, which are unlikely to result in disaffected elements successfully deposing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed by force. The economic and military influence of senior members of the Amhara
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Haitian president’s attempted shooting signals growing protests and organised violence risks against government targets in coming months
Event On 17 October 2018, thousands of Haitians took to the streets nationwide to protest against corruption, particularly the alleged misuse of USD2 billion from Venezuela-led scheme Petrocaribe under former presidents René Préval and Michel Martelly (2008–16). Additionally,
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RoKN seeks to create task fleet for blue-water operations, says report
The Republic of Korea Navy (RoKN) said during a parliamentary audit on 19 October that it is seeking to create a task fleet by the mid-2020s capable of conducting “broader-range operations beyond its shores”, the Yonhap News Agency reported that same day. The RoKN envisions a task fleet
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Europe steps up EU policing strategy
In 2018, the European Union began to implement its third Policy Cycle on Serious and Organised Crime. Matthew Redhead examines the drive in Brussels towards greater policing co-ordination as criminals adopt new technologies and Brexit approaches -
Building NATO’s new eastern front: The eFP in Europe
In 2016 NATO leaders agreed to despatch multinational battlegroups to the Baltic states and Poland under the enhanced Forward Presence initiative. Since then NATO deployments to Eastern Europe have accelerated. Tim Ripley charts the progress of efforts to build up allied defences in the region -
Russia develops co-orbital anti-satellite capability
Russia appears to be developing a co-orbital anti-satellite system. Bart Hendrickx examines the evidence in open sources about Russia’s satellite development programmes that points to the existence of the project
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Country Risk Country Risk
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Electoral fraud accusations by Mozambique’s opposition RENAMO unlikely to lead to return to civil war
Key Points Electoral disputes are likely to be contested politically and legally, including with threats to pull out of peace negotiations, but are unlikely to lead to a resumption of fighting between RENAMO and government forces. A final peace agreement between RENAMO and FRELIMO is likely prior
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Ethiopia advances economic and military reforms, unlikely to split ruling coalition before 2020 election
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Haitian president’s attempted shooting signals growing protests and organised violence risks against government targets in coming months
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Trilateral military talks positive, but bilateral talks between two Koreas highlight South Korean policy differences with US
Military Capabilities Military Capabilities
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Momentum builds to Block US arms sales to Saudi Arabia
Congressional momentum is building within the United States for blocking defence exports to Saudi Arabia after the disappearance of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, although questions linger over what equipment to ban Riyadh from buying. Speaking to reporters at a 17 October breakfast in Washington,
CBRN Assessment CBRN Assessment
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North Korea willing to ‘permanently dismantle’ Yongbyon nuclear site
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has expressed his willingness to continue to take measures towards his country's denuclearisation, including the permanent dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities, where a 5 MWe plutonium-producing reactor is located. The move was announced on 19
Terrorism & Insurgency Terrorism & Insurgency
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New Caledonia’s probable rejection of independence likely to trigger violent protests by indigenous youths, particularly affecting mining
Key Points Concerns among the majority of the public in New Caledonia regarding the territory’s economic dependence on France are highly likely to offset any desire for full sovereignty, resulting in a vote to remain part of France. There is a high risk of violence from disaffected
Jane's Intelligence Review Jane's Intelligence Review
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Electoral fraud accusations by Mozambique’s opposition RENAMO unlikely to lead to return to civil war
Key Points Electoral disputes are likely to be contested politically and legally, including with threats to pull out of peace negotiations, but are unlikely to lead to a resumption of fighting between RENAMO and government forces. A final peace agreement between RENAMO and FRELIMO is likely prior
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Ethiopia advances economic and military reforms, unlikely to split ruling coalition before 2020 election
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Haitian president’s attempted shooting signals growing protests and organised violence risks against government targets in coming months
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Trilateral military talks positive, but bilateral talks between two Koreas highlight South Korean policy differences with US
