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Pentagon reaffirms military-to-military ties with ‘Northern Triangle’ countries
US Marines participate in the 21 June SPMAGTF-SC opening ceremony at Soto Cano air base outside of Comayagua, Honduras. As part of the SPMAGTF-SC, nearly 300 US marines and sailors have deployed to Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, to help train local forces, and provide assistance if a natural disaster occurs. Source: IHS Markit/Ashley RoqueCoup attempt in Ethiopia’s Amhara and associated assassination highlight deteriorating military cohesion, hostility between regional states
Ethiopian Prime Minister’s Office press secretary Billene Seyoum (left) and spokesperson Negussu Tilaaun speak during a press conference in Addis Ababa on 23 June, following assassinations on 22 June. Source: Eduardo Soteras/AFP/Getty Images‘BALTOPS 2019’ tests new amphibious command construct for US, NATO forces
Marines disembark from raiding craft during an amphibious demonstration at Palanga Beach, Lithuania held as part of ‘BALTOPS 2019’. Source: Lee WillettEU's further postponement of accession negotiations with Albania, North Macedonia undermines judiciary, governance reforms, Western Balkans stability
Prime Minister of Albania Edi Rama, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Prime Minister of the Republic of North Macedonia Zoran Zaev at the end of the Western Balkan Conference on 29 April 2019 in Berlin, Germany. Source: Mika Schmidt - Pool/Getty Images Editorial #: 1140192138
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Israel, UK, and US conduct joint F-35 training
The first three countries to employ the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) in combat have come together for an inaugural trilateral training exercise geared at increasing interoperability and cross-user learning. Aircraft from Israel, the United Kingdom, and the United
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Pentagon shakeup poised to ensure continuation of US Army’s modernisation priorities
If the White House gets its way, US Army leaders will be shuffled into key, Senate-confirmed positions, a move that could potentially solidify the continuation of the service’s six key modernisation priorities. Mark Esper left his post as the army’s secretary to take the reins as the
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US Department of Commerce not interested in second Space Fence site
The US Department of Commerce is not interested in acquiring the second Space Fence space situational awareness (SSA) site from the US Air Force (USAF) and is choosing to work with industry instead. “I have not asked for a second Space Fence site,” the Department of Commerce’s
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Australian DoD denies any involvement in reported planning for a new deep-water port near Darwin
Australia’s Department of Defence (DoD) has denied any involvement in classified or unclassified planning to develop a new deep-water port near Darwin to support the deployment of US Marines for training in Australia. The DoD’s statement follows a 23 June report by the Australian
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China deploys J-10 fighters to Woody Island, says report
Commercial satellite imagery captured on 19 June shows that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has deployed at least four Chengdu Aircraft Industrial Group J-10 multirole fighter aircraft to Woody Island in the South China Sea (SCS), according to a 21 June report by CNN. The move,
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Wild East: Russian and US formations in Eastern Europe
Experience in recent conflicts has prompted both Russia and the United States to rethink their primary war fighting formations in Eastern Europe. Samuel Cranny-Evans reports -
US demand drives profitable cross-border fentanyl trade
Demand for illegal opioids in the US market is leading Mexican cartels to expand their involvement in fentanyl trafficking. James Blake reports from the Mexico-US border on the production and distribution of fentanyl and the national security impact of the trade -
Progressive HARM: An evolution in capability
The suppression and/or destruction of enemy air-defence systems is essential to sustaining US and allied anti access/area denial mission superiority. Robin Hughes explores the evolution of the AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile in advancing this capability
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Country Risk Country Risk
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Coup attempt in Ethiopia’s Amhara and associated assassination highlight deteriorating military cohesion, hostility between regional states
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has described as a “coup attempt” the (probably linked) assassinations of Amhara region’s president, Ambachew Mekonnen, in Bahir Dar and subsequently of the federal military chief of staff, General Seare Mekonen, in Addis Ababa on 22 June.
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UN records decrease in security-related incidents in Afghanistan
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Fifth China-North Korea summit highlights pressure on US to alter negotiating position for “denuclearisation” talks to progress
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Violent unrest in Tbilisi following Russian MP’s appearance in Georgian parliament increases likelihood of early general election
Military Capabilities Military Capabilities
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Pentagon reaffirms military-to-military ties with ‘Northern Triangle’ countries
When embattled Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández landed via helicopter at Soto Cano air base outside of Comayagua on 21 June, US Southern Command (USSOUTHCOM) Commander Admiral Craig Faller and the US Chargé d’Affaires to Honduras Heide Fulton were on the ground to greet him
CBRN Assessment CBRN Assessment
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Israel says Iran continues ballistic missile launches
Iran launched a Khorramshahr medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) in December 2018, the Israeli representative to the UN told the Security Council in a letter released on 5 June. Danny Danon said there had been seven Iranian ballistic missile launches between December 2018 and February 2019,
Terrorism & Insurgency Terrorism & Insurgency
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Southern Mali attack highlights likelihood of jihadist conflict reaching coastal West Africa, targeting foreigners, churches, mining companies
On 19 May, seven people were killed in a jihadist attack on a border post at Koury in Mali’s southern Sikasso region, near the Burkina Faso border. The attack comes amid warnings and assaults in coastal Ghana, Togo, and Benin, previously unaffected by terrorism, as well as Cote d’Ivoire,
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Islamist attacks on Burkinabe churches indicate a broadening strategy from stoking inter-ethnic violence to prioritising sectarian divisions
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Gwadar attack indicates growing threat to Chinese nationals in Balochistan but risks to Chinese projects relatively lower
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Implementation of ceasefire conditions reduces immediate likelihood of resumed escalation between Israel and Gazan militant groups
Jane's Intelligence Review Jane's Intelligence Review
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Coup attempt in Ethiopia’s Amhara and associated assassination highlight deteriorating military cohesion, hostility between regional states
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has described as a “coup attempt” the (probably linked) assassinations of Amhara region’s president, Ambachew Mekonnen, in Bahir Dar and subsequently of the federal military chief of staff, General Seare Mekonen, in Addis Ababa on 22 June.
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Fifth China-North Korea summit highlights pressure on US to alter negotiating position for “denuclearisation” talks to progress
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Violent unrest in Tbilisi following Russian MP’s appearance in Georgian parliament increases likelihood of early general election
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EU's further postponement of accession negotiations with Albania, North Macedonia undermines judiciary, governance reforms, Western Balkans stability
