11 November 2021

Russian 1st Guards Tank Army equipment spotted in Voronezh

Russia has deployed at least 60 tanks, supported by infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), and self-propelled howitzers (SPHs) from the Moscow area to Maslovka railway station south of the city of Voronezh and less than 250 km from the Ukrainian border.

During Russia's spring 2021 build-up on the Ukrainian border, Maslovka railway station was one of the main stations used by Central Military District (CMD) forces deploying from Siberia to the Voronezh region. This CMD equipment was stored at Pogonovo between spring and early October, when it began redeployment. By 27 October satellite imagery showed Pogonovo's vehicle stores to be totally empty and the CMD equipment stored there redeployed to a garrison in Yelnya, Smolensk, near the Belarusian border.

The new equipment seen at Maslovka is believed to belong to various 1st Guards Tank Army units, which have deployed nearly 500 km from their permanent bases in the Moscow area to the Voronezh region.

The equipment seen at Maslovka includes a battalion of T-80U main battle tanks (MBTs) belonging to the 4th Tank Division and a battalion of T-72B3 MBTs likely belonging to an additional 1st Guards Tank Army unit, possibly the 2nd Motorised Division or 6th Tank Brigade. In addition to the tanks, at least one company-sized element of 10 BMP-2 IFVs, four 2S19 SPHs, and various combat engineering vehicles were observed at the railway station.

The deployment of 1st Guards Tank Army equipment to Voronezh comes just a week after several sightings of the army's equipment were identified well outside of its normal area of operations in the Kursk and Bryansk regions. Janes does not believe the equipment seen in Maslovka is the same as that seen during these movements in Kursk and Bryansk.

Analysis
Janes assessment is that there is sufficient equipment in Maslovka to form one tank battalion tactical group (BTG) comprising three tank companies equipped with either T-80Us or T-72B3s and a mechanised infantry company with BMP-2s, supported by a 2S19 artillery battery. This configuration would leave enough tanks remaining to form another BTG pending the arrival of additional IFVs and artillery. The purpose of the deployment is not clear, but the presence of 1st Guards Tank Army equipment in the Voronezh region, along with previous sightings in Kursk and Bryansk, is concerning and merits continued observation. The unit has been sighted well outside the army's normal areas of operation during a gap in the Russian military's summer and winter training cycles when Russia does not normally conduct large-scale drills. The equipment also appears to be moving mainly around the border area with a high degree of secrecy, mainly at night to minimise sightings by the public. The activity also ties into wider movements involving the 20th, 41st, and 58th Combined Arms Armies. Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at the Center for Naval Analyses, told Janes on 10 November that Russia appears to be positioning a “sizeable force” on the border, “which may not show indicators of an imminent invasion, absent evidence of logistics and other key supporting elements, but those may arrive as reinforcements in a relatively short amount of time”. This means that Russia is likely setting the stage for an operation in time for the post-Christmas uptick in fighting in Donbass.

Analysis

Janes assessment is that there is sufficient equipment in Maslovka to form one tank battalion tactical group (BTG) comprising three tank companies equipped with either T-80Us or T-72B3s and a mechanised infantry company with BMP-2s, supported by a 2S19 artillery battery. This configuration would leave enough tanks remaining to form another BTG pending the arrival of additional IFVs and artillery.

The purpose of the deployment is not clear, but the presence of 1st Guards Tank Army equipment in the Voronezh region, along with previous sightings in Kursk and Bryansk, is concerning and merits continued observation.

The unit has been sighted well outside the army's normal areas of operation during a gap in the Russian military's summer and winter training cycles when Russia does not normally conduct large-scale drills. The equipment also appears to be moving mainly around the border area with a high degree of secrecy, mainly at night to minimise sightings by the public.

The activity also ties into wider movements involving the 20th, 41st, and 58th Combined Arms Armies. Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at the Center for Naval Analyses, told Janes on 10 November that Russia appears to be positioning a “sizeable force” on the border, “which may not show indicators of an imminent invasion, absent evidence of logistics and other key supporting elements, but those may arrive as reinforcements in a relatively short amount of time”. This means that Russia is likely setting the stage for an operation in time for the post-Christmas uptick in fighting in Donbass.