Country Risk

Mexican president-elect to have largest representation in Lower House and audit infrastructure, energy contracts on corruption grounds

02 July 2018
Mexico’s President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador cheers his supporters at the Zocalo Square after winning the presidential election, in Mexico City, on 1 July 2018. Source: Pedro Pardo/Contributor/Getty Images

Key Points

  • Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)’s coalition will have the largest representation in the Lower House but will not have the required two-thirds threshold to reverse pro-market constitutional reforms such as the opening of the hydrocarbons sector to private participation.
  • However, infrastructure and energy contracts will face a high risk of being audited on corruption grounds. The former faces the highest risk of cancellation or terms revision because that the sector has been affected by corruption scandals.
  • AMLO supports the continuation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, but his support base will pressure him into escalating anti-US rhetoric, undermining trade talks, if the US administration criticises Mexico on trade, immigration, or drugs.


Left-wing presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the National Regeneration Movement (Movimiento Regeneración Nacional: MORENA) won the 1 July presidential election with 52.8% of the vote. He takes office on 1 December 2018.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) won the presidential election with 52.8% of the vote, and runner-up Ricardo Anaya of the Coalition for Mexico to the Front (Coalición Por México al Frente: CPMF) had a distant 24%. Mexico also held congressional elections on 1 July and preliminary results showed AMLO’s National Regeneration Movement (Movimiento Regeneración Nacional: MORENA) performing well. In the Lower House election, where results have been released for 300 out of 500 seats, MORENA and the parties that support AMLO in the coalition, the Mexican Labour Party (Partido del Trabajo: PT) and the Social Encounter Party (Partido Encuentro Social: PES), obtained 224 seats, or a 45% representation. In the Senate, where results have been released for 32 out 128 sets, the coalition that supports AMLO has so far obtained 20% of the seats (24).

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