Jane's Intelligence Review

Mapping shows terrorism risk increase in Cairo

09 May 2015
Geographic distribution of terrorism incidents across Cairo, 2013-15 (IHS)

IHS Aerospace, Defence and Security is pleased to announce the re-launch of IHS Jane’s Intelligence Review (JIR) following consultations with our customers about their evolving requirements. JIR is published continuously online, with content appearing as soon as it has been edited. It is also available as part of our comprehensive coverage of country risk in our Jane’s Military and Security Assessments (JMSA) intelligence centre, and is published once a month as a hard copy magazine.

The new-look JIR will carry regular sections on cyber issues, open-source intelligence analytics, online jihadist activity, and news from around the global intelligence community. Throughout both the online and magazine versions of JIR, we will also be making greater use of insights gleaned from social media intelligence (SOCMINT) that complement our dashboards on social media usage available as part of JMSA.

Additionally, and also following feedback from our customers, we are increasing the volume of visual analytics to include a wider spread of mapping, satellite imagery, infographics, and GIS-based visualisations.

Mapping shows terrorism risk increase in Cairo

In the last two years, there has been an increase in quantity and a shift in distribution of terrorism incidents in Cairo. In the first in a new series on developments in OSINT analytics, Hugo Foster uses visualisation to map out the pattern of terrorist attacks.

The state's heavy-handed response to protesters is leading to growing Islamist militancy in Egypt. The frequency of improvised explosive device (IED) attacks in the country is growing, with a greater number of small attacks against a wider target set, in addition to less frequent but higher-impact attacks by groups such as the Sinai-based Jamaat Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis. Militant Islamist and youth groups have declared their intent to wage economic war against the state, as part of a strategy to force the military out of power.

The raw data bear out the trend of an increasing number of generally low-level attacks. The IHS Country Risk Analysis and Forecasting Team (CRAFT) recorded 24 terrorism incidents in the Cairo conurbation, including Giza, in 2013. This figure rose to 107 in 2014, and by 23 April 2015 already stood at 60 incidents for the year to date.

Mean streets

The heat map below uses a customised density analysis designed to highlight hotspots of terrorism within Cairo. The data on these terrorist incidents were compiled by IHS CRAFT.

In addition, the map identifies the locations of likely terrorism targets in central Cairo. The data are taken from IHS TerrorRisk, a geospatial database of more than 6,000 terrorism targets worldwide. Targets are locations that are assessed to be at increased risk of being attacked in the coming 12 months relative to the risk profile of the surrounding environment. The sizing of the location markers reflects how high the risk of attack is assessed to be.

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