Ukraine and NATO develop AI model for predicting enemy UAV strikes

Still from video shared by Ukraine's Air Force Command on 30 September 2026 depicting Geran-3 OWA UAV. (Ukraine's Air Force Command)

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and NATO's Allied Command Transformation (ACT) developed two AI-supported tools for predicting enemy unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks and for planning artillery operations, Ukraine's Ministry of Defence (MoD) said in a 13 October 2026 press release.

The NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training and Education Centre (JATEC) presented Model No.13 for predicting enemy UAV attacks and Model No.32 for artillery operations during a three-day seminar in September 2026 in Vilnius, Lithuania.

The AI model underpinning the Model No.13 tool is designed to predict the type, timing, locations, and intensity of potential enemy UAV attacks. According to Ukraine's MoD, the tool forecasts enemy UAV activity near the frontline based on an analysis of historical data, weather conditions, and the battlefield situation. The ministry said that Model No.13 is “ready for integration into the AFU situational awareness systems”.

The MoD said on 12 October that the AFU intercepted more than 4,700 Russian-launched UAVs and missiles during large-scale attacks in September 2026, while also neutralising more than 48,000 tactical-level UAVs.

The ministry's September breakdown included 24 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 8 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles (North Korea's KN-23 appears to be based on Russia's Iskander-M), 12 Kalibr cruise missiles, 6 Kh-59/69 guided air-launched missiles, 6 Iskander-K cruise missiles, 8 Zircon anti-ship missiles, 86 S8000 Banderol cruise missiles, 2,722 Shahed-131/136 one-way attack (OWA) UAVs, 1,935 Shahed-238 OWA UAVs, 1,009 intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) UAVs, and 719 Lancet UAVs.

In the 12 October press release, Ukraine's MoD highlighted Russia's increasing use of jet-powered OWA UAVs capable of flying at speeds of around 400 km/h.