Danish Intelligence highlights Russian aggression in Baltic, deniable UAV tactics

Russian Steregushchiy II-class frigate Soobrazitelny, seen traversing the Great Belt in April 2026. (Michael Nitz)

The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) has assessed that there is a “low but growing risk” that Russia could launch a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia in the coming months, even while the war in Ukraine continues.

This risk would be particularly relevant if Russia assessed that the US was unable or unwilling to support European NATO members in a conflict with Russia, according to an updated assessment of the threat from Russia, published by DDIS on 24 September 2026.

At the same time, DDIS assessed that Moscow believes European countries will develop autonomous military capabilities by 2030 which would pose an increasing threat. Russia may consequently view the coming years as a window in which it could attempt to change the European security order before European military capabilities strengthen further, the service said.

The assessment also highlighted increasingly aggressive interactions between Russian and NATO forces in the Baltic Sea region. DDIS cited a 14 September incident in which, according to the service, a Russian frigate fired flares towards a Danish military helicopter, describing it as the most serious recent incident involving Danish forces. On the day the Danish Armed Forces said in a news release that “one of the Air Force's Fennec helicopters has today been shot at with flares in connection with a routine photo coverage of a Russian frigate that was in international waters off Gedser. The Russian frigate fired two flares at the helicopter. One of the fired flares passed at a short distance from the helicopter.”

In a post on Telegram on 16 September Russia's Ministry of Defence said that the commander of Russian Steregushchiy II-class frigate Soobrazitelny