Janes delivers assured open-source country intelligence for 197 countries. Ensuring you are equipped with the data and insight you need for today’s mission, safe in the knowledge you have access to an assured foundational data set for what may come tomorrow. 

This scenario, focusing on the Sahel region, demonstrates how Janes data, insight and analysis can deliver unique insights into the increase in the operational tempo of Islamist militants and territorial expansion, against a background of military coups and rising political instability.

Between 2015 and 2021, Janes recorded significant upticks in violence by non-state armed groups (NSAGs) in Burkina Faso, driven by the porosity of the tri-border area with neighbouring Niger and Mali, where the violence has been predominantly concentrated.

In 2022, Burkina Faso became the epicentre of violence in the tri-border area, surpassing Mali in the number of militant attacks and resultant non-militant fatalities, owing to a lack of security force capability and the drawdown of the French military's regional operation ‘Barkhane' in early 2022

During January 2023 attacks by non-state armed groups and resultant non-militant fatalities increased by 56% and 97% respectively from the previous month, further cementing the country as the new epicentre of militant Islamist violence in the Sahel from groups including Islamic State and Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin.

Using Janes you can examine the profile of activity for over 300 militant groups. For this scenario, we will look at the activity of Islamic State and (JNIM) in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. 

We can quickly understand the tempo of attacks over time, targets, weapons used and tactics.

Between 2000 and 2022, 79% of military coups recorded globally occurred in Africa, concentrated in West Africa and the Sahel regions.

Using data and analysis of African military coup activity, Janes analysts have identified a series of indicators that increase military coup risks and can help assess the likelihood of future coup activity globally.

One of these indicators is increasing militant activity, where government failure to adequately suppress militant attacks can lead to major internal grievances within the armed forces, who are subject to government policy and suffer high casualties as a result. Taking Burkina Faso and Mali as an example we can see relationships between non-state armed group attacks and military coups.

Returning to Janes on the activity of militant groups we can see that most attacks carried out by Islamic State and JNIM in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger were targeted at security forces.

The growing threat from insurgent groups has led countries such as Mali to seek support from the Wagner Group – a Russian paramilitary force – while relations with traditional western powers, particularly France, has subsequently declined.

Similarly, continued disunity in the collective response among the international community likely encourages military coups, which was exemplified in January 2022 when Russia and China blocked a UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution (SC/14762) that would have condemned military rule in Mali and supported economic sanctions against the military regime.

In the meantime, Moscow and Beijing have maintained relationships in these countries through economic engagement. Janes’ tracking and mapping of the global business transactions of Chinese and Russian companies demonstrates China and Russia have been active in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. China seeking to access their natural resources through engagement of various private and state-owned enterprises. While Russian companies have remained active in deals ranging from gold mining to military exports. 

Burkina Faso

Russia Example: Russian domiciled company acquires Niou Project (gold mine) May 2020

China Example: Chinese company contracted to complete the construction of Zina Solar Power Plant December 2021

Mali

China Example: Reports that Chinese company to acquire 51% stake in Kodal Lithium Mine - January 2023

Russia Example: Mali receives multiple military planes and helicopters from Russia - August 2022

Niger

China Example: Chinese company announces it has been selected to operate Agadem-Zinder crude oil pipeline - December 2021

Russia Example: Russia signed a contract with Niger for the export of 12 Russian Mi-35 attack helicopters - October 2019

Janes assesses that instability and militant activity is highly likely to increase in Burkina Faso and the wider Sahel region in the medium term.

Janes country intelligence enables you to quickly understand the politics, military, economy, socio-demographic, information, and infrastructure of 197 countries across the globe in a recognised PMESII framework.

Supported by daily event-driven insights, in-depth data-driven analysis and country stability indicators Janes enables you to identify flashpoints and destabilising factors.

While the tracking of the global business transactions of Chinese and Russian companies, provides an additional layer of insight to increase understanding of how countries can use geoeconomic statecraft to project power, control, and influence abroad. Janes delivers the data and insight you need to increase your global situational awareness.