Recent attacks by Arakan Army indicate significant offensives against military likely in Myanmar, involving ambushes and IEDs

On 4 January 2019, the Arakan Army (AA) militant group carried out co-ordinated assaults, operating at least at platoon strength, on four posts manned by the paramilitary Border Guard Police in the northern part of Buthidaung Township in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, close to the border with Bangladesh. At least 13 police officers were killed and nine wounded in the attacks, with video footage subsequently released apparently showing that at least one base was overrun by evidently well-equipped AA militants using newer AK-series assault rifles, machine guns, and sniper rifles as opposed to the group’s previous use of rudimentary assault rifles and small-arms, and home-made crude improvised explosive devices (IEDs). The AA is probably receiving logistical support from other ethnic insurgent groups, mostly the Northern Alliance – Burma (NA-B), of which AA is a member.

Myanmar border police patrol the fence in the ’no man’s land’ zone between Myanmar and Bangladesh in Rakhine state during a government-organised visit for journalists on 24 August 2018. (Phyo Hein Kyaw/AFP/Getty Images)