Briefing: Global UAV market forecasts to 2020

Fifty countries currently operate UAVs, but the United States is expected to maintain its dominance and account for nearly 60 per cent of the end-user market by 2020. Northrop Grumman and General Atomics continue to lead the market for UAV development, although there are substantial global opportunities for other suppliers to increase their market share.

Major emerging markets are China, India, Russia and South Korea, while in 2011 Brazil emerged as a potential future major player. Non-US indigenous capabilities are on the increase; there is the prospect of increasing exportability from these countries, and international collaboration is likely to expand.

The UAV market is in the early stages of its market life-cycle with R&D accounting for a large part of the growth. However, production sales are increasing and there is a significant services market unfolding.

UAVs have demonstrated their high value in Iraq and Afghanistan and will continue to grow in importance, with many more having an armed capability. Border surveillance and homeland security are also very important applications.

Despite the increasingly constrained global defence budget environment, UAVs are seen as having major significance in future operations.

The US is forecast to remain the largest end-user of UAVs, with most of the concept, design, development and demonstration/validation programmes stemming from its requirements.