Date Posted: 30-Jan-2025
Author: James Trigg, London
Amid Ansar Allah's campaign of attacks against Israel and shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, the domestic conflict in Yemen has continued. James Trigg reviews the latest conflict events involving Ansar Allah, the YAF, and forces aligned with the STC to identify and assess the locations, tactics, and developments of note
Key points
- Janes Events recorded 30 relevant armed conflict events in Yemen between 1 and 22 January 2025, an 11% increase over the 27 events captured between 1 and 31 December 2024
- Al Bayda governorate: On 22 January Ansar Allah launched an assault against forces aligned with the YAF. Two soldiers were injured by an Ansar Allah-launched UAV
- Al Dhale governorate: Janes Events recorded attempts by Ansar Allah to infiltrate positions held by the YAF on 8 and 11 January. Both attempts were repelled by the YAF
- Al Hudaydah governorate: On 10 and 11 January the Giants Brigades media centre reported the interception and seizure of two vessels. The vessel intercepted on 10 January was reported to be carrying “a shipment of various smuggled ammunition and shells”. The second vessel was transporting “highly dangerous materials such as explosives, detonators, and detonating fuses … used in the manufacture of drones, missiles, and explosive devices”, according to an 11 January statement
- Marib governorate: Janes Events recorded nine armed conflict events between 1 and 22 January, including the wounding of two YAF soldiers by small-arms fire on 16 January
- Shabwa governorate: Janes Events recorded two Ansar Allah attacks against forces aligned with the Shabwa Defense Forces, affiliates of the STC, on 16 and 20 January. Both attacks involved the use of UAVs
- Taiz governorate: Janes Events recorded 10 Ansar Allah attacks between 1 and 22 January, a minor decrease from the 11 events between 1 and 31 December 2024
Yemen conflict: Areas of control among Yemeni factions, January 2025. (Janes Events)
Marib governorate
Significant events
- On 4 January the Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) reported attacks by Ansar Allah (commonly known as the Houthis) “on a number of fronts south and west of Marib governorate”, according to the Yemeni Khabar News Agency outlet.
- On 8 January the YAF reported the interception of an Ansar Allah-launched unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operating across Marib governorate.
- On 16 January Janes Events recorded Ansar Allah attacks against YAF troops along the Raghwan front to the northwest of Marib city, along the Al-Karassa front to the west of the city, and to the southwest of the city in the Al-Balaq mountains.
Critical national infrastructure within Marib governorate
| Facility/site name | Latitude | Longitude | Conflict risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marib Dam | 15.396440 | 45.244710 | Disruption of water supplies for irrigation and public consumption and risk of damage to the dam, leading to downstream flooding |
| Marib International Airport | 15.567856 | 15.567856 | Construction already stalled |
| Marib Power Plant | 15.553680 | 45.772196 | Disruption of power supplies |
| Safer oil facility | 15.569960 | 45.795034 | Disruption to domestic fuel supplies and exports |
Significant conflict events across Marib, 1–22 January 2025. (Janes)
Assessment
No significant change (NSC): Janes assesses that Ansar Allah will likely maintain the intensity of its actions against Marib city in the immediate to short term. These operations are likely intended to secure the city's oil and gas infrastructure in the aftermath of Israel's July, September, and December 2024 airstrikes against fuel storage facilities in Hudaydah and Ras Issa. Furthermore, the fall of Marib city would deny the Yemeni government its last significant population centre in northern Yemen.
Confidence: These assessments are made with moderate confidence due to the historical precedent displayed by Ansar Allah in conducting large-scale military operations directed towards Marib, as well as the strategic importance of the city to Ansar Allah. In a rare claim about casualties suffered in past offensives against Marib, in November 2021 Agence France Presse quoted Ansar Allah sources who claimed that almost 15,000 fighters had been killed between June and November 2021 during the group's last major offensive towards Marib city. While Janes cannot verify these numbers through open sources, such a figure suggests a willingness among Ansar Allah's commanders to tolerate high levels of casualties due to the strategic value ascribed to the city.
Taiz governorate
Significant events
- On 5 December Ansar Allah utilised UAVs and artillery to target Giants Brigades positions in Maqbanah district of Taiz governorate, inflicting no injuries.
- On 6 December the YAF announced conducting a raid against a hangar and tunnel used by Ansar Allah to launch attacks against YAF personnel close to the “ceremonial camp” (likely an alternative name for the Republican Guard camp) located at 13.57695 N, 44.033214 E.
- On 23 January the Ansar Allah-aligned branch of the Yemen News Agency (Saba) announced that “local officials, military leaders, and community members” had gathered in the Sabir al-Mawadim and Jabal Habashi districts of Taiz to commemorate the life of Hussein Badreddin al‐Houthi, the founder of Ansar Allah.
Significant conflict events across Taiz governorate, 1 December 2024–1 January 2025. (Esri/Janes)
For more information, please see Yemen conflict spotlight December 2024-January 2025
