Intelligence podcast: Russia/Ukraine - Coming of Age for OSINT?

25th February 2022

In the latest episode of The World of Intelligence podcast, we speak to Thomas Bullock, Senior Russia and CIS OSINT Analyst at Janes and Christian Haimet, Country Intelligence Analyst at Janes, about the real-world utility of OSINT.

Video Demonstration: Using Janes Intara to build a common intelligence picture: Russian build up on the Ukrainian border

24th February 2022

Janes delivers persistent monitoring of Russian troop and equipment sightings, leverages Janes assured equipment and military unit data to offer an in-depth view of military activity. The ability to integrate your own and third-party data with Janes assured open-source intelligence using Janes Intara ensures that analysts can utilize all relevant and available OSINT or classified sources, with each source enriching the others. This ability to form a uniquely comprehensive foundational intelligence picture results in faster and more insightful analysis for decision makers and operators.

The Ukraine Crisis - A Failure of Deterrence or Just the Kick the West Needed?

24th February 2022

As increasingly belligerent rhetoric by NATO and EU leaders declares that their nations have never been more united over the Ukraine crisis, and that Russia will pay dearly for its actions in the form of unprecedented economic sanctions, Putin's forces continue unabated to deploy into separatist controlled areas of Ukraine. Just under the surface, western allies are struggling to maintain the visage of unity. The UK Prime Minister, under pressure in the House of Commons for the limited nature of the economic response, let slip that he was prioritising 'unity with our allies' over sanctions. The declaration by the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, that the certification of the Nord Stream 2 project would not now go ahead, while clearly very welcome, came as somewhat of a surprise, further underscoring differences in national responses to Russian aggression.

Russia announces drawdown but continues to move forces close to Ukrainian border

16th February 2022

The withdrawal of some units identified by the Russian MoD, such as the 3rd and 150th Motorised Divisions, also matter very little. Both of these units are permanently stationed well within 250 km of the Ukrainian border and could easily move back to forward positions at short notice.

Moreover, there are no indicators that a large-scale drawdown has begun. Russian actions, specifically the movement of Western Military District assets in Belgorod, Central Military District forces in Bryansk, and Eastern Military District forces in southeastern Belarus, are inconsistent with a drawdown, with all forces appearing to be moving closer to the Ukrainian border. Some recent footage posted to social media also indicates Russia is still moving forces west towards the border from deeper inside Russia.

Russia continues military build-up on Ukrainian border

3rd February 2022

Russia's military build-up in Belarus and along the Ukrainian border has continued unabated over the past 14 days. Social media indicates the frequency of deployments has increased, with daily sightings of equipment on the move at their highest since the build-up began in October 2021.

Eastern Military District (EMD) ground forces have begun deploying to several sites in Belarus, mainly along the country's southern border with Ukraine. S-400-air defence systems have also begun to arrive, and the Janes assessment is that one of the battalions – likely belonging to the 1529th Air Defence Regiment stationed in Khabarovsk – has been unloaded at Luninets railway station, about 50 km from the Ukrainian border.

Russian build-up on Ukrainian border enters new stage

25th January 2022

Following a relative lull in activity after 1 January, Russia's armed forces appear to have entered their highest level of activity and movement since the autumn-winter build-up began in late October.

Evidence indicates activity from all of Russia's major regional commands, and Moscow has also signalled that it will move a large number of surface vessels, including six landing ship tanks (LSTs), a cruiser, and a destroyer, into the Mediterranean Sea, where they could easily continue into the Black Sea.