02 March 2023
Benin's preliminary parliamentary election results suggest continued dominance of the ruling government despite the opposition's breakthrough
Key points
- Event: On 11 January 2023, Benin's Autonomous National Electoral Commission (Commission Électorale Nationale Autonome: CENA) announced the preliminary results of the nationwide parliamentary election held on 8 January 2023
- Significance: The 2023 parliamentary election is the first election in four years that saw the participation of Benin's opposition parties, following a 2019 constitutional amendment that led to the exclusion of the opposition from the 2019 parliamentary and 2021 presidential elections as well as large-scale violence
- Outlook: The frequent amendment of electoral laws and regulations allowing the ruling parties to consolidate power is likely to persist and the oppression of a relatively weaker political opposition is very likely to continue ahead of the 2026 presidential election, contributing to further political instability in Benin
Event
On 11 January 2023, Benin's Autonomous National Electoral Commission (Commission Électorale Nationale Autonome: CENA) announced the preliminary results of the 2023 parliamentary election that was held nationwide on 8 January. Regional and international observers, including the Election Observation Mission of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS–EOM), said that the election campaign and voting environment were fair and generally peaceful. However, on 12 January, Eric Houndété, the president of the opposition party The Democrats (Les Démocrates: LD), rejected the provisional election results citing electoral fraud and alleged vote buying. Furthermore, the final results of the election published by the country's Constitutional Court on 12 January confirmed the distribution of seats stated in the provisional results. Benin's next parliamentary election will be held in 2026, alongside the country's presidential election, following a 2019 constitutional revision that reduced the term of elected representatives in the National Assembly from four to three years and further extended it to five years to co-ordinate with the presidential term starting in 2026.
A voter prepares to vote at a polling station at the Charles Guillot de Zongo public elementary school in Cotonou during Benin's legislative election on 8 January 2023. (AFP via Getty Images)
Significance
Benin witnessed large-scale violence during the parliamentary election held in April 2019. The government implemented a new electoral code in 2019 through constitutional amendments, increasing the deposit amount and enforcing a 10% representation clause. These amendments in effect prevented opposition parties non-allied to the president from contesting the elections and resulted in Benin's decline from ‘free' to ‘partly free' in the 2020 Freedom House ‘Freedom in the World' report. Following the announcement of the election result in May 2019, international media sources reported violent protests and riots in different parts of the country and the use of firearms by security forces to disperse protesters. Local media reported that a temporary curfew was established in the economic capital, Cotonou, as soldiers and riot police were deployed to diffuse the situation. Hence, the 2023 parliamentary election is the first election in four years that witnessed the participation of the opposition parties.
According to the statement released by CENA on 11 January 2023, the ruling parties – Progressive Union for Renewal (Union Progressiste le Renouveau: UP-R) and the Republican Bloc (Bloc Républicain: BR) – won 53 and 28 seats, respectively, winning the majority in the 109-member National Assembly. The opposition party, LD, won 28 seats. In terms of the vote distribution, the UP-R won 37.56% of the votes, the BR won 29.17%, and LD won 24.02%. Out of the seven political parties that contested, only three could achieve the 10% threshold of votes that is required for parliamentary representation.
On 12 January 2023, Benin's Constitutional Court published the results showing a decrease in the total voter turnout percentage from 38.66% in the provisional results to 37.79%. The President of the Constitutional Court Razaki Amouda Issifou said that the change in voter turnout figures was because of a few technical irregularities. The voter turnout was higher compared with a record low of 22.99% that was reported in the 2019 parliamentary election. Local media sources suggest that the lower voter turnout is likely due to a fear of violence, general disinterest in politics among the public, and a lack of trust in government institutions. Nevertheless, in a local media report of a statement released on 12 January, President Patrice Talon said that Benin has “turned the page on political violence”, citing the peaceful nature of the 2023 parliamentary elections. In his statement, Talon also said that “banditry and insecurity will no longer be mass movements” in Benin and commended the country's security forces on their effectiveness in tackling “all challenges related to insecurity and terrorism”.
Outlook
Frequent alteration of electoral laws and regulations that favour the ruling parties to consolidate their power is likely to impact the political stability in Benin. However, the recent election result is also reflective of the majority support received by the ruling parties, despite the government crackdown on political opposition and the controversial 2019 constitutional amendment. In the 2021 presidential election, only two less popular candidates from the opposition were allowed to contest the election as the 2019 amendment created a new rule requiring presidential candidates to be endorsed by 10% of members of the National Assembly and mayors, or a minimum of 18 endorsements. According to the 2023 parliamentary election results published by CENA, the opposition has 28 seats in the National Assembly and is very likely to have the capacity to endorse opposition candidates in the 2026 presidential election.
In the medium term and as Benin nears the 2026 presidential election, a crackdown on the political opposition is, however, likely. The government has been accused of prosecuting key opposition leaders on charges of terrorism and money laundering. In December 2021, the former leader of LD party, Reckya Madougou, was sentenced to 20 years in prison for allegedly plotting the assassination of several political figures in the country. Similarly, in December 2021, another opposition leader, Joël Aïvo, was sentenced to 10 years in prison for allegedly plotting against the state and money laundering. In July 2022, the government announced the release of at least 30 political prisoners during a visit by French President Emmanuel Macron. However, the continued domination of the ruling parties, UP-R and BR, and oppression of a relatively weaker political opposition is very likely to continue in light of the forthcoming 2026 presidential election. In addition, security threats posed by the increasing levels of militancy in Benin will very likely have an impact on political stability, despite President Talon's 12 January statement.
(Note: Items from news/wire services are abstracted from the originals and are not verbatim)
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Benin's preliminary parliamentary election results suggest continued dominance of the ruling governm...
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