Ukraine conflict: Wagner Group insurrection fails to eliminate support for Putin among Russian elite but diminishes Putin's standing
By Aditya Pareek
Key points
- Event: Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin launched an armed insurrection on 23 June 2023. He said the objective of his insurrection was the removal of Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. Prigozhin aborted his insurrection later on 24 June following an agreement with the Kremlin brokered by Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko
- Significance: Despite Prigozhin's actions, Russia's elites, including regional governors and Russia's intelligence agencies, publicly expressed support for Russian President Vladimir Putin
- Outlook: There is a roughly even chance for a reversal in the Russian elite's support for President Putin in the short term
Event
On 23 June 2023 Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin alleged that the group had sustained casualties in a 23 June missile attack carried out by the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD). However, at the time of publication, Janes is unable to confirm the attack took place. In response to the alleged missile strike, Prigozhin launched an armed insurrection into Russian territory on the night of 23 June. According to a statement by Prigozhin the insurrection was aimed at removing Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. Prigozhin also announced his intention to reach Moscow with Wagner troops.
In a 24 June statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin denounced the insurrection and compared the unfolding events with the 1917 Russian Revolution. However, on the same day, after an agreement with the Kremlin brokered by Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, Prigozhin announced an end to the insurrection. Under the terms of the agreement, legal proceedings against Prigozhin launched by Russian domestic intelligence agency Federal Security Service (Federalnaya sluzhba bezopasnosti: FSB) will be halted and Prigozhin will leave for Belarus
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