Brazilian strategy scenario portrays France as future threat

A recently emerged 45-page confidential draft by the Brazilian Ministry of Defence (MoD) includes a section that paints France as a major future threat.

The paper, named ‘Defense Scenarios 2040’, outlines possible scenarios aimed at redefining Brazil’s future foreign policy strategy, taking into account regional and global geopolitical trends.

In one scenario France by 2035 would announce unrestricted support to a United Nations demand to intervene after the Ianomami indigenous people claimed independence from Brazil. Two years later France would then mobilise a large military contingent in French Guiana, including aircraft and ships. The scenario does not however go so far as to envisage a military conflict. The Brazilian State of Amapá shares a 730 km-long border with French Guiana.

French President Emmanuel Macron and his Brazilian counterpart Jair Messias Bolsonaro engaged in a diplomatic spat in August 2019 when large fires erupted in Brazil’s Amazonian region. Declarations by Macron were widely seen as political interference in Brazilian internal affairs by a large proportion of the country that included military and political elites.

The draft also envisages continuous worsening relations with France following the events of 2019 and a crisis caused by the discontent of the Ianomami tribes. France is also seen as a hindrance to the implementation of a trade agreement between South American nations and the European Union.

However, the scenario involving France omits, be it intentional or not, that the European nation has been a first-rank military ally to Brazil, a source for the acquisition of major defence equipment and an important defence-industrial partner.

Brazil and France launched a strategic partnership in May 2006 and formally established it in December 2008.