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Likely increase in armed group raids in southwest Rwanda; security forces will protect infrastructure projects, tourism

18 April 2019
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Repeated reports of small-arms fighting in southwest Rwanda, near the border with Burundi's Cibitoke province, and cross-border movements of armed elements during the first half of April indicate that the Rwandan anti-government armed group the FNL (variously the "Forces Nationales de Libération" or the "Front de Libération Nationale") has established a more durable presence inside the country, albeit one likely still limited to unpopulated forested areas. This contrasts with its previous hit-and-run cross-border raids, most recently in July and December 2018.

Rwandan President Paul Kagame speaks at a press conference on 8 April in Kigali during commemorations of the 1994 genocide. (Andrew Renneisen/Stringer/Getty Images)Rwandan President Paul Kagame speaks at a press conference on 8 April in Kigali during commemorations of the 1994 genocide. (Andrew Renneisen/Stringer/Getty Images)

  • FNL raids in southern Rwanda will likely increase in frequency, but are unlikely to significantly threaten the authority of the Rwandan state in the area in the one-year outlook.




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