CONTENT PREVIEW
Country Risk

Egyptian presidential term limits likely to be extended; major industrial development projects likely to remain policy priority

08 February 2019
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi stands in front of an Egyptian flag on 28 January 2019. Source: Ludovic Marin/AFP/Getty Images

Key Points

  • There is unlikely to be a substantive shift in government policy if Sisi's term limit were extended. Expressions of protest are very likely to remain online or in media, with any non-sanctioned street demonstrations almost certain to be broken up by police using riot control methods.
  • Companies linked to the armed forces are most likely to benefit from state megaprojects, with priority areas likely to relate to the new administrative capital being constructed east of Cairo and industrial zones along the Suez Canal.
  • Such projects face high risk of payment delays, or retroactive renegotiation of contracts, with minimal transparency provided by the judiciary.

Event

On 5 February, a parliamentary petition to amend the 2014 Constitution was approved by the Parliamentary General Committee and should now progress to a House of Representatives' vote.

The parliamentary petition, signed by more than one-fifth of MPs, calls for the amendment of 12 articles of the Constitution and the addition of nine new articles, including an extension of presidential term limits from four years to six, changing the process for selecting the heads of the judiciary and minister of defence, the establishment of an upper house senate, and increasing the representation of minorities, including women and Coptic Christians, in parliament.

The petition will be discussed and if approved by a two-thirds majority of parliament on 17 February, which IHS Markit considers to be highly likely, it will be presented for a referendum within 30 days of that vote. Although democratic campaigners and Islamists still oppose the continuation of a military-backed government, they are unlikely to have sufficient backing to prevent the referendum approving the planned changes.

Expressions of protest against the petition are very likely to remain online or in media, with any non-sanctioned street demonstrations almost certain to be broken up by police using riot control methods.

Want to read more? For analysis on this article and access to all our insight content, please enquire about our subscription options at ihsmarkit.com/janes





(329 of 1020 words)
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT