- Indonesia will host the 2018 Asian Games from 18 August to 2 September in Jakarta and Palembang; more than 100,000 people are expected to be in attendance.
- Although Islamic State-linked militants intend to attack the Asian Games’ venue, this represents a low probability-high impact scenario, specifically given their limited capability and the security forces’ preparedness.
- In Jakarta, the event is more likely to be disrupted by mass protests organised either by drivers of ride-sharing applications or by hard-line Islamist groups. These will mostly be non-violent but could lead to severe traffic disruption in central areas.
On 1 August, in preparation for the upcoming Asian Games, Indonesian security forces organised a counter-terrorism drill by simulating a militant attack and a hostage situation in Jakarta.
Want to read more? For analysis on this article and access to all our insight content, please enquire about our subscription options at ihs.com/contact