- Libyan governance is likely to remain split between east and west, even should elections be held, although the central bank and the National Oil Corporation are likely to maintain their political neutrality.
- East-west fighting is unlikely to resume on a significant scale, although localised fighting between rival militias will continue to generate high risks to personnel and property, particularly in Tripolitania and around high-value assets such as airports.
- If left unchecked, the Islamic State is likely to expand its attacks against rural infrastructure and those militias providing security, with increasingly bold attacks likely in urban areas, particularly Misratah and Tripoli.
Want to read more? For analysis on this article and access to all our insight content, please enquire about our subscription options at ihs.com/contact