Military clashes in Sudan threaten to become protracted conflict following attempted coup by Rapid Support Forces

Key points

• Event: On 15 April 2023, fighting erupted in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
• Significance: Since January 2023, Janes Military Coup Indicator has ranked Sudan among the top three states most likely to experience a military coup. However, the preceding fragmentation and current conflict between the RSF and the SAF differ significantly from previous coups and greatly increase the likelihood that Sudan will fall into a prolonged internal conflict
• Outlook: It is likely that the SAF and the RSF will continue to clash in Khartoum and across the country over the coming days. As the conflict continues and as international pressure grows, the likelihood that the SAF and the RSF will agree to a ceasefire or armistice increases. The SAF's capability advantage in terms of weaponry and personnel means any eventual ceasefire agreement would likely be dictated by the SAF upon the RSF

Event

In the early hours of 15 April 2023, fighting erupted in the Sudanese capital Khartoum between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), under the leadership of Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (alias Hemedti).