Analysis: Russian invasion of Ukraine to impact Pentagon budget

Janes GPS expects, at the time of writing, that there will be minimal-to-moderate impact on the US Department of Defense's (DoD) upcoming fiscal year (FY) 2023 budget request and the omnibus FY 2022 appropriations, but there will likely be additional supplemental appropriations alongside, or in combination, with it.

This is likely to begin during the approval of the FY 2022 omnibus appropriations bill, which is on track for passage in early March. Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Democratic Appropriations Committee chairs and Republican Senate Appropriations ranking member Richard Shelby had agreed to a general ‘framework' for discussions on the omnibus, which would have seen approximate parity in increases for the defence and non-defence budgets.

However, the White House has already requested an additional USD6.4 billion, including USD3.5 billion for the DoD to fund the deployment of additional forces to Germany, that Democratic lawmakers hope to include in the omnibus bill.

From there, several potential avenues for increases may emerge. The first of these decisions will be driven by Shelby and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who may press defence increases above parity to ensure sufficient Senate Republican votes to override a potential filibuster. While this would be fuelled by domestic political stances, it should also be noted that many states represented by Republicans in the Senate have disproportionally stronger ties to the US Army and its industrial base.

However, regardless of general agreement between the two parties, an attempted filibuster at some point during the approval process can be expected (likely from Republican Senator Rand Paul who has historically objected to what he views as excessive government spending).