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Protests over PM's election are unlikely to overthrow Armenian government but indicate increased political polarisation
Armenians wave the national flag during an opposition rally in central Yerevan on 18 April 2018. Source: KAREN MINASYAN/AFP/Getty Images #: 948181792Newly approved anti-contraband law to heighten risks of road blockades, cargo delays, and corruption on Bolivia's borders
Photograph released by Aton Chile showing Bolivian soldiers and customs officials detained on the Chilean side of the border, and convicted of robbery and smuggling, being walked to the border in Colchane, Chile, to be expelled on June 28, 2017 after the Bolivian government paid a fine. Source: AFP Contributor/Getty ImagesConsensus-based appointment of Guinea-Bissau’s PM likely to resolve political stalemate; donor support likely after 2018 elections
Bissau-Guinean President José Mário Vaz waits at the presidential palace in Abidjan prior to a meeting with Côte d'Ivoire's president. Source: Issouf Sanogo/AFP/Getty ImagesParaguay’s ruling party positioned to retain power at presidential election; policy continuity expected
Paraguay’s presidential candidate for the ruling Colorado Party (Partido Colorado: PC), Mario Abdo Benítez (centre) greets the crowd during a campaign rally in San Lorenzo, on 2 April 2018. Source: Norberto Duarte/AFP/Getty Images
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Collapse of government after no-confidence vote indicates growing power of Kyrgyz President, reducing political instability risks
Event On 19 April 2018, 101 MPs out of 120 in the Kyrgyz legislature supported a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Sapar Isakov’s government, which has failed to maintain power for even a year. This marks the first time in Kyrgyzstan’s history that the government has been
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Outcome of Turkey’s presidential election depends largely on ability of discordant opposition parties to present unified candidate
Key Points The presidential election will put into effect the new political system that was created with the constitutional referendum on 16 April 2017. This entails the establishment of an executive presidency, with minimal checks and balances to its executive authority. The emergence of former
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European Commission recommendation to open negotiations with FYR Macedonia enhances government stability, makes judiciary improvements more likely
Key Points Government stability is likely to be improved. The name dispute between FYR Macedonia and Greece is likely to be only partially resolved in the next few months. The implementation of legislation aimed at improving the judicial system and public administration is likely to be
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Successful Islamic State attack on Egyptian army base indicates likely failure of Operation Comprehensive Sinai
Event On 14 April, militants carried out an attack on an army base near al-Qosimah in central Sinai. The operation involved at least 14 attackers armed with assault rifles, light machine-guns and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), with between two and four of the militants detonating suicide
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Likely increased allocation of funds for EU external border security precondition for relaxation of current Schengen exemptions
Event The German government has notified the European Commission of its intention to continue with ‘exceptional’ intra-Schengen checks along the border with Austria for another six months. The controls will mainly affect the three cross-border motorways, but there will also be random
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Syria after the caliphate: Manbij poised between conflicts
Derek Henry Flood reports from Manbij in northern Syria, charting the city’s power dynamics and precarious situation as the fight against the Islamic State has given way to competing interests -
Iraq’s elections focus militias on political ambitions
Iraq’s parliamentary elections in May are likely to shape its future relations with Iran, the US, and the Gulf Arab states. Rebecka Lind and Ege Seckin analyse the impact of three scenarios for the outcome of the polls on Iraq’s foreign and security policy -
Preliminary testing of North Korean ELWR likely under way
Operations testing may be under way at North Korea’s ELWR. Nick Hansen assesses the evidence and examines the implications for the direction of the country’s civilian and military nuclear programmes
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Protests over PM's election are unlikely to overthrow Armenian government but indicate increased political polarisation
Key Points The opposition politician Nikol Pashinyan from the Yelq party emerged as leader of the anti-Sargsyan protest movement. The momentum of protests is unlikely to be sustained – they lack wider public support and the authorities have avoided excessive use of force, to minimise the
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Collapse of government after no-confidence vote indicates growing power of Kyrgyz President, reducing political instability risks
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Outcome of Turkey’s presidential election depends largely on ability of discordant opposition parties to present unified candidate
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European Commission recommendation to open negotiations with FYR Macedonia enhances government stability, makes judiciary improvements more likely
Military Capabilities Military Capabilities
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Iraqi F-16s strikes Islamic State in Syria
Iraq has flown a raid against Islamic State targets in Syria, the prime minister’s office announced on 19 April. An undisclosed number of Iraqi Air Force (IqAF) combat aircraft carried out the strikes on unspecified Islamic State targets on the Syrian side of the border, according to a tweet
CBRN Assessment CBRN Assessment
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North Korea open to denuclearisation if military threat is removed, says South
North Korea’s leadership has agreed to hold its first summit with leaders from the South since 2007 and is open to discuss the issue of denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula, the government in Seoul announced on 6 March. “The South and the North have agreed to hold a third
Terrorism & Insurgency Terrorism & Insurgency
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Yemeni rebels target Saudi oil industry
Key Points Yemeni rebels have announced three attacks on Aramco facilities The Saudi-led coalition blamed them for an attack on an oil tanker The Yemeni rebel group Ansar Allah (Houthis) claimed to have carried out three rocket attacks on Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) facilities in 10 days
