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Israel fights on two fronts with Lebanese border escalation
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| 13 July 2006 |
By David Hartwell, Middle East Editor, Jane’s Country Risk
Israeli forces have continued attacks on multiple targets in Lebanon following the kidnapping of two soldiers by Hizbullah on 12 July. Israel has also imposed a naval blockade on Lebanon.
Tel Aviv has stated that it holds Lebanon responsible for the soldiers' capture and views the kidnappings as an "act of war". The kidnappings come two weeks after the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) launched a large-scale offensive in Gaza aimed at securing the release of another captured soldier, Cpl Gilad Shalit, but despite Israel's overwhelming application of force, he is seemingly no closer to being released.
Hizbullah's opportunism may well have been aimed at increasing the pressure on Israel to temper its action in Gaza, but this appears to have backfired drastically. Israel set itself a precedent in its robust reaction to the kidnapping of Cpl Shalit, necessitating an equally violent response to Hizbullah’s kidnapping. However, in reacting in such a forceful manner, Israel has narrowed the scope for a diplomatic resolution and left itself little room for further escalation of its military options.
A re-occupation of southern Lebanon akin to the 18-year occupation between 1982 and 2000 is highly unlikely owing to US pressure and the level of violent reaction to be expected from Hizbullah. International pressure on Israel to reduce the intensity of its attacks and on Hizbullah and Hamas to release the three hostages will increase, although Israel appears unwilling at this stage to participate in a prisoner exchange.
With trust undermined on all sides, unless the hostages are released soon - ¬ an outcome extremely unlikely to be achieved by military force alone - ¬ there appears little prospect of a rapid reduction in either conflict or tension.
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