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Iran attacks rebel camps with heavy weapons, but were they 'Scuds'?
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| 26 April 2001 |
By janes.com contributor Sean Boyne
Iran gave a demonstration of its tactical reach on 18 April when it unleashed a barrage of heavy weaponry onto seven rebel bases in Iraq.
It was one of the more elaborate onslaughts mounted by Iranian forces against the opposition Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK), which is hosted by the Saddam Hussein regime and maintains a sizeable military force on Iraqi soil with a reported strength of 15,000 to 20,000 fighters.
However, claims by the MEK that Iran fired 66 'Scud' missiles during the 18 April offensive was greeted with some scepticism by defence analysts. If the claim is true, then it would mean that Iran has vastly greater reserves of 'Scud' ballistic missiles than previously estimated. In recent years, some estimates have suggested that Iran had perhaps 200 'Scud B' missiles and 150 'Scud Cs'.
If this was the extent of the holding of 'Scud' missiles in the Iranian arsenal, it would be hardly conceivable that Iran would use up 66 of those weapons in a one-day offensive that resulted in just one reported MEK fatality.
During the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War, for instance, Iran fired only about 14 Scuds in 1985, eight in 1986, 18 in 1987 and 77 in 1988. If the MEK claim is correct, it would mean that Iran fired more 'Scud' missiles in one day than it did in three years of all-out war from 1985 to 1987.
A more likely explanation - if the attacks were as heavy as claimed by the MEK and by the Iraqi government - is that they were not 'Scuds' but more modest battlefield weapons. The camps attacked were reportedly located near Basra, Kut, Jalawla and Khalis, all of which lie within 20-100km of the Iranian border, and Iran has the capability to develop and produce battlefield rockets capable of reaching these locations.
Among the longer-range rockets Tehran developed during the Iran-Iraq War was the Nazeat, the latest 450mm version of which has a range of up to 150km. There are believed to be several hundred Nazeats in the Iranian arsenal.
Also in production and in service is the 610mm Zelzal 2 heavy artillery rocket, which has a range of 200km.
Shorter-range artillery rockets in service include the 333mm Fadjr-5 (75km range), the 333mm Shahin 1 and 2 (13 and 20km range respectively), the 240mm Fadjr-3 (43km range), the 230mm Oghab (45km range) and a number of systems with a calibre of 122mm or less, many of which can reach more than 20km.
While Iran has confirmed that attacks were carried out on the MEK camps, an Iranian official contacted by janes.com was not in a position to say what type of missile, or how many, had been used.
Defence analyst Anthony Cordesman, of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies and a consultant to the US Government, said he could not place any credence in claims made by the MEK unless independently corroborated by intelligence sources.
The MEK has, however, claimed that 'Scuds' have been fired at its bases in the past. On 10 June 1999, when three missiles/rockets struck one of its bases at Ashraf (110km northeast of Baghdad), the MEK identified them as 'Scud Bs'.
The MEK has been a constant thorn in the side of the Iranian regime. Apart from cross-border attacks against Iranian security forces, the MEK also has an underground network within Iran that has carried out assassinations and other guerrilla attacks.
Iran has responded over the years with rocket and missile attacks on MEK bases in Iraq's eastern frontier region. Iranian combat aircraft have also crossed the border into Iraq to bomb MEK bases, the most recent such strike occurring in September 1998.
Additional reporting by Peter Felstead.