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The insurgency threat in southern Iraq
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| 20 February 2004 |
By Tim Ripley
JTIC assesses the insurgent threat in southern Iraq with an analysis of the weapons and tactics available to the former regime security forces and tribal militias in the region.
The pro-regime insurgents in southern Iraq operate in a very different way to the tribal militia forces of the Fawq.
The weapon of choice for the pro-regime insurgents is the roadside improvised explosive device (IED) or the suicide car/truck bomb. The November 2003 attack on the Italian base in Nasiriyah was a classic example of the latter tactic being used to considerable effect.
In the wake of the Nasiriyah bombing, improvised barricades of articulated trucks were placed on the approaches to the British divisional headquarters at Basra airport. Warrior armoured vehicles were posted outside the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) building. As a longer-term security measure, concrete barriers and roadblocks were built around most British and coalition bases in the south, although not to the same degree as in Baghdad.
In Basra itself, some four to five IED incidents are now occurring every week. Of these, only one attack a month is usually successful. The most high profile attacks including the blowing up of a British ambulance that killed one soldier, and the targeting in November 2003 of a vehicle convoy carrying the British police chief in Basra, Northern Ireland Assistant Chief Constable Stephen White.
The insurgents have attempted several `close attacks' on British troops, one which led to three soldiers being machine gunned in their unarmoured 4x4 vehicle in the centre of Basra. These attacks were common in mid-2003 but have since tailed off as the insurgents seemed to concentrate their efforts on IED attacks.
British military sources describe the pro-Saddam Hussein insurgents as being highly organised cells that operate in small numbers. They employ sophisticated reconnaissance efforts to identify targets and possible attack methods. Insurgent scouts or scouting teams have been arrested or spotted working around most major coalition military bases or key infrastructure targets throughout the British divisional area.
It is also believed that the insurgents have a small number of expert bombmakers who are involved in designing and mass-producing IEDs. Four different types of IEDs have been identified to date, including mechanically triggered devices, under vehicle magnetic devices, and electronically operated and radio controlled roadside devices. Iraqi insurgents have also developed sophisticated methods to camouflage IEDs to prevent discovery.
At least five different types of firing mechanisms have been identified in Iraq by British Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) experts. Explosive elements include `necklaces' of grenades, PE4A plastic explosives, and Claymore type shrapnel charges
The main source of explosives for the insurgents is the huge ammunition depots abandoned by the Iraqi military, which are now open to looting. There are at least 120 abandoned major ammunition storage sites in the country that need to be made safe, as well as thousands of minor sites containing war debris. In the region occupied by British troops there are some 16 suspected sites containing more than 10,000 items. Eight of the sites are suspected of containing more than 100,000 items and one is believed to hold more than 200,000 items.
To counter the IED threat, intensive high-profile patrolling is undertaken to ensure the insurgents are aware that they will not be able to attack at will. Covert surveillance by special forces teams and aerial surveillance by helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles are also used as an added level of security around key installations and buildings.
Compared to the Sunni Triangle, the British-led coalition forces in southern Iraq face a threat of a very different nature. The political situation is very different, with the region's predominately Shi'a population being generally well disposed to the coalition forces.
As the proposed hand over of sovereignty from the CPA to Iraqis approaches in June, tension is likely to increase, particularly if Shi'a demands for direct elections intensify. British-led troops will then find themselves in an entirely new and more dangerous scenario.
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