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Myanmar faces down its armed minorities
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21 February 2006
Myanmar faces down its armed minorities
By Anthony Davis and Edo Asif
Fundamentally, there are three factors behind the abrasive confidence that now defines the Myanmar military's interaction with the outside world. Earlier paranoia over possible US military intervention and 'regime change' - at a high in the aftermath of the invasion of Iraq - has been overtaken by a more realistic assessment of international realities and US capabilities.
Next, diplomats and analysts in Yangon concur that, despite perennial economic difficulties, any threat of popular unrest in the country's ethnic Myanmari heartland is viewed as entirely contained. For all the jostling in its senior ranks, Myanmar's Armed Forces (Tatmadaw) remains united in its role as the self-appointed custodian of the nation's territorial and political integrity.
The third factor is arguably the most important. The ethnic minority insurgents who have posed the greatest challenge to central government since independence from Britain in 1948, have effectively been marginalised. Almost all of the 17 groups that signed ceasefire agreements with Yangon between 1989 and 1995 have witnessed a gradual decline in their military capability in favour of a shift towards running lucrative business activities in the 'special zones' under their administration.
After 15 years of uneasy status quo, the past two years have seen a marked hardening of the junta's attitude towards ceasefire groups for whom any prospect of a return to the battlefield has become increasingly remote.
The years of peace and growing involvement in cross-border trading and other business activities undoubtedly worked to debilitate and corrupt most of Yangon's most intractable ethnic foes. Most today are left with little option but to accept such terms as the junta, backed by a rearmed and substantially reinforced Tatmadaw, dictates. And of those who opted to continue armed struggle or later returned to war, only two managed to mount a significant military challenge: the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), operating along Myanmar's eastern border with Thailand; and, posing a far greater threat, the Shan State Army-South (SSA-S), which is based along Thailand's northern border. Both now face sharply increased military pressure.
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