North Korean test emboldens Iran

North Korea's apparent nuclear weapons test appears to have strengthened Iran in its defiance of the international community and increased the likelihood of an Iranian-Israeli military confrontation.

Iranian leaders have reaffirmed their intention to continue their own avowedly peaceful nuclear programme. They believe that Russia and China, despite differences in their respective bilateral relationships with Tehran and Pyongyang, will resist applying harsh sanctions against Iran.

Even if, against expectations, the UN Security Council eventually adopts sanctions against Iran, they would most likely contain the same weak measures as the resolution against Pyongyang: verbal condemnations, limited sanctions and no endorsement of military action.

This assessment will further discourage Tehran from negotiating a deal that would prevent it from developing a comprehensive nuclear fuel cycle, which could provide the foundation for a future nuclear weapons programme. Although the Israeli government continues to endorse multinational efforts to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, the international community's failure to prevent North Korea from testing a nuclear weapon will prompt Israeli leaders to consider unilateral military action against Iran more seriously.

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© 2006 Jane's Information Group

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