Egypt's nuclear dilemma

It came as no surprise when in September Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak called for Egypt to pursue a nuclear energy programme. Iran rivals Saudi Arabia's claim to religious dominance and Egypt's pretensions to regional political supremacy. If Iran acquires nuclear weapons capability, it is expected to encourage other countries in the region, especially Sunni Arab states like Egypt and perhaps even Saudi Arabia, to follow suit, sparking a nuclear arms race.

The sudden revival of Egypt's plans to develop nuclear power have already prompted speculation by intelligence sources that Mubarak may have more than just future energy supplies in mind. In fact, Mubarak said Egypt was "not starting from zero". He continued: "We have knowledge of this technology, enabling us to move forward with it." No doubt having nuclear power could give Egypt much more influence in regional proliferation issues than it currently wields.

A nuke for Egypt?

In January 2005, the head of Israel's counter-terrorism agency Mossad, Meir Dagan, warned the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee that there were indications that several Middle East states other than Iran - primarily Egypt and Syria - were working at varying stages in the development of indigenous nuclear programmes.

But there is little, if any, evidence that Egypt under Mubarak has pursued a nuclear weapons programme. Egypt receives about USD2 billion in aid each year from the US foreign assistance programme and the proposed increase to USD2.3 billion is no doubt a serious element in Mubarak's calculations to remain a staunch ally of the US.

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© 2006 Jane's Information Group
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