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Syria: the key to Lebanon conflict?
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Syria: the key to Lebanon conflict?
Four weeks after the Israel-Lebanon conflict broke out Israeli forces have yet to achieve the key objective of putting an end to Hizbullah's capability to launch rocket attacks against Israel's northern territory. Syria is now being seen as a possible key to breaking the deadlock.
Amid the ongoing crisis, leading Israeli analysts are proposing a new approach: instead of being part of the problem, Syria must become part of the solution. According to this view, Damascus has been, and will remain, the key to Lebanon's political stability and to any future peace deal between Israel and Lebanon. The argument goes that as long as Syria is excluded from the process, it will continue to destabilise the region, either directly or by proxy.
Among the leading proponents of this theory is former Mossad Deputy Chief David Kimche, now a commentator on regional security. He suggests that the current crisis could actually offer an opportunity for achieving peace. He said: "The joker in the Middle Eastern pack of cards is Syria - negative, autocratic, dictatorial Syria, ally of Iran, supporter of Hizbullah, seemingly the last country in the world to deal with, except perhaps through the barrel of a gun."
Other leading Israeli intelligence analysts share Kimche's view that Syria is an indispensable part of any solution to Israel's problems with Lebanon. According to this assessment, Syrian President Hafez al-Assad is the weakest link in the current Iran-Syria-Hizbullah axis. Without Syrian support, Tehran would not be able to continue to sponsor its surrogate Shia force in Lebanon.
Recent intelligence reports indicate that in spite of Assad's vocal support for the alliance with Iran, public opinion in Syria favours a rapprochement with Washington and an end to Damascus' isolation from the West.
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© 2006 Jane's Information Group
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