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Britain's deterrent - the inquiry
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Britain's deterrent - the inquiry
Key questions at the inquiry centred on the UK's world role; options for extension or replacement of the sea-based Trident system; the timetable for decision-making; the UK's relationship with the US and with other nuclear powers; the rise of new nuclear-capable states, and an analysis of threats requiring deterrence over the next two decades.
The main global threat is now seen as terrorism, particularly suicide bombings, which a nuclear force could not deter. Militant groups are more likely to acquire or use nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction than the sponsoring states themselves. It was claimed that a series of asymmetric attacks on the UK could make it harder to justify defence capability beyond homeland security.
Countering this argument was the view that maintaining nuclear capability would enable the UK to deter, or even attack, a state that masterminded a major terrorist action. French President Jacques Chirac had warned in March that France would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons against any group or terrorist-sponsoring state that threatened French interests. The increased accuracy of the upgraded Trident missile made it suitable for deterring such enemies.
Moreover, Russia remained an unknown quantity, as did China, which is modernising its intercontinental ballistic missile force. The long lead times needed to design and build new submarines in the UK - the most urgent aspect of Trident renewal - necessitated decisions to be made before 2010 if the UK were to have a force ready to deter these and other threats in the future.
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