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Pakistan's latest gamble
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20
January 2005
Pakistan's latest gamble Recent threats by the Pakistani government to launch a military crackdown against tribal insurgents in Baluchistan risks unleashing a new terrorist threat amid mounting instability.
Unrest in the strategically important western province of Baluchistan has been continuing for many years. A major uprising in the 1970s was put down by the Pakistani military, leaving a legacy of bitterness and resentment among many of the tribal region's five million inhabitants. Although it is the country's largest province, its economic prospects are poor and there has been very limited development.
However, the latest rise in tension is being seen as a serious threat to Pakistan's national interests following an attack at the end of last week that disrupted supplies from the country's main natural gas field and left around 18 people dead. Other insurgent tactics have included launching rockets and planting bombs in urban areas. These incidents have followed a steady increase in violence during 2004, including the murder of three Chinese workers in May and the deaths of over 30 security personnel.
The government's immediate response to the latest attack has been to deploy additional troops in a bid to secure vital gas and oil supplies. Musharraf is now threatening insurgents with overwhelming military force unless order is restored. "It isn't the 1970s when you can hit and run and hide in the mountains," Gen Musharraf warned the separatists recently. "This time you will not even know what hit you."
However, some regional analysts are warning that threats to send Pakistani troops into Baluchistan may actually inflame the situation, with the risk that a localised insurgency could escalate into a major security nightmare for the authorities in Islamabad. Baluchi militants are already gaining local support for their campaign against a government that they accuse of exploiting the region's natural resources without providing benefits for the population, a majority of whom remain wretchedly poor.
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