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Is Al-Qaeda winning the war?
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27 May 2004
Is Al-Qaeda winning the war? There is mounting concern that Al-Qaeda and its international affiliates are actually stronger now than they were in 2001. JID asks the question that may have appeared unthinkable in the aftermath of the attacks against New York and Washington: is Al-Qaeda winning the war?
For many people (at least in the West) the very question is provocative and even outrageous. Their argument would probably run along the lines that the USA and its close allies hold both the moral high ground, as well as possessing the resources and the determination to defeat an international criminal network.
The invasion of Afghanistan and the ousting of the Taliban regime have denied Al-Qaeda's access to training camps that operated under state protection; the pro-Western orientation of the current Pakistani leadership has limited the group's scope for geographical movement and the capture or killing of senior Al-Qaeda operatives has demoralised and undermined the movement.
However, while there are elements of truth in all of the above assertions, the overall progress made by the anti-terrorist Coalition is extremely limited compared to the mounting evidence that popular support for Osama bin Laden's group and its ideology is, in fact, growing stronger. A report published this week by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) suggests that despite the loss of Afghanistan as a training ground for its recruits, Al-Qaeda has "fully reconstituted, set its sights firmly on the USA and its closest Western allies in Europe and established a new and effective modus operandi that increasingly exploited local affiliates".
The IISS' Strategic Survey 2003/04 also warns that Al-Qaeda "must be expected to keep trying to develop more promising plans for terrorist operations in North America and Europe". The authors suggest that there is the potential for weapons of mass destruction to be used by the group.
None of this points to an organisation in retreat or facing a crisis of morale. In fact, according to estimates quoted by the IISS, Al-Qaeda is active in over 60 countries and may have as many as 18,000 "potential terrorists" at its disposal.
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