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NPT: a treaty in crisis
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| 18 September 2003 |
With concern growing over the nuclear programmes of North Korea and Iran, efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons by means of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) are in doubt. JID's nuclear weapons expert examines the potential threat posed by aspiring nuclear nations.
North Korea and Iran were both signatories to the treaty. However, North Korea has pulled out, while Iran is under mounting pressure to sign an Additional Protocol to the NPT that would allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) greater unannounced access to its nuclear sites.
The NPT entered into force in 1970 and represents the only binding commitment in a multilateral treaty to the goal of disarmament. A total of 187 parties have signed up, including the five principal nuclear-capable states (the USA, Britain, France, Russia and China). Since the treaty's inception, only a handful of countries have been identified as possessing and maintaining nuclear weapons – most notably, Israel, India and Pakistan – none of which are NPT signatories, but all of which are located in highly volatile regions. Despite the generally held taboo against using nuclear weapons, India and Pakistan could cross that threshold, having edged closer to it during recent crises.
However, it is increasingly unstable North Korea that could sound the death knell of the NPT as it is expected to be the first nation to violate the treaty by testing a nuclear weapon. Pyongyang is now widely believed to have two crude prototype nuclear devices ready to test and has also relaunched its previously halted uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing programmes.
Iran, while remaining an NPT signatory, could conclusively prove the treaty's inadequacy by being the first state to develop covert nuclear weapons while abiding by some IAEA safeguards, yet continuing to exploit those loopholes in the treaty that permit trade in civilian nuclear technology.
Some experts believe that unless the five original nuclear states agree to disarm, countries aspiring to a nuclear capability will have no incentive to desist. Growing insecurity and the desire for enhanced status, as well as regional conflicts, can only encourage such countries to develop their own nuclear capability, as does the need to defend against or deter a conventional or nuclear attack.
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