Non-Subscriber Extract
Casablanca follows fate of Riyadh as suicide bombers kill more than 40
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| 17 May 2003 |
By Jane's Intelligence Digest Editor Alex Standish
The multiple suicide bomb attacks that killed at least 41 in the Moroccan city of Casablanca on Friday (16 May) night have all the hallmarks of yet another Al-Qaeda-linked operation.
Western intelligence sources have pointed to an audio tape recording - alleged to be of Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden - which came to light in February when it was broadcast by the Al-Jazeera satellite channel. That message was unambiguous: Saudi Arabia and Morocco were named along with Jordan, Nigeria, Pakistan and Yemen as targets for "liberation" from Western influence. Now, within the space of a few days, carefully co-ordinated suicide bombings have been launched against two of those countries.
In common with the terrorist attacks in Riyadh, the targets in Casablanca were calculated to strike at very specific groups; they included a Spanish social club (Spain was a vocal supporter of the US-led campaign against Iraq), a Jewish community centre and a hotel used by Jewish visitors to the city. As one anti-terrorism analyst observed: "This was an operation that required significant knowledge of the locality. If those who planned these attacks are foreigners, then they have devoted considerable time to reconnaissance, suggesting that terror cells have been active for some time - perhaps months or even longer."
Although there has not yet been confirmation of the nationality of any of the 10 suicide bombers, the Moroccan authorities are pointing to the likelihood that this was an international operation rather than a plot involving Moroccan citizens. The Moroccan ambassador to the UK, Mohammed Belmahi, has told journalists in London that his government suspects an "international terrorist group" was responsible for the attacks - without actually naming Al-Qaeda.
The motive behind the Casablanca bombings is not difficult to identify. The government of King Mohamed VI has pursued a strongly pro-Western policy and Morocco (a French protectorate until 1956) has been noted for its cosmopolitan mix of ethnic groups - including a well-established Jewish community. This is in marked contrast to the extremely violent campaign being waged by hardline Islamic militants in neighbouring Algeria.
Although there has been some evidence that Morocco does have a small number of militants - there was a previous terrorist attack against a hotel in Marrakech in 1994 - most regional analysts consider the local Islamic movement, the Jamiat al-Adl wal-Ihsan group, to be relatively moderate. While the group has boycotted recent elections, it has not hitherto been suspected of any terrorist activity, and this absence of evidence has strengthened the contention that the latest attacks were planned and carried out by a terrorist cell with international links and perhaps consisting of foreign citizens.
Most regional specialists believe Morocco will prove extremely difficult to destabilise. Unlike Saudi Arabia it has a functioning parliamentary democracy, a widely popular constitutional monarchy and enjoys close links with the West. It is an aspirant candidate for future membership of the European Union and there is little doubt that both the USA and the EU will rally in support of the government of Prime Minister Driss Jettou. Bin Laden's declared aim of overthrowing the present constitutional system and replacing it with a hardline, anti-Western Islamic regime is thus considered to be a highly improbable scenario. However, the damage that a campaign of suicide bomb attacks is likely to inflict on the country's tourist sector and economy should not be underestimated.
Morocco's administration already shares anti-terrorism intelligence with its US and European counterparts, so it is to be anticipated that there will be close co-operation with Western intelligence agencies in the investigation of the attacks. However, it is less certain that firm evidence of a direct Al-Qaeda link will be uncovered unless those who actually planned the operation are apprehended.
Although Bin Laden's network is being widely named as the guilty party, it is still too early to be able to make a positive identification or to be able to assess whether the Casablanca attacks were actually co-ordinated in conjunction with the Al-Qaeda command structure, or whether those responsible were part of a North African cell of sympathisers with Al-Qaeda's objectives without having formal ties to the terrorist organisation itself. What is certain, however, is that those responsible for such suicide attacks continue to receive their ideological inspiration from Bin Laden and his determination to wage war against the USA and its allies.