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The winds of change
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| 03 April 2003 |
In 1960 then British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan predicted that "the winds of change" were blowing across Africa, in a speech, which heralded the UK's retreat from its remaining colonial empire in the continent. Different winds of change may soon be blowing across the Middle East as Arab radicalism receives a major injection of popular support in the wake of the Iraq crisis. JID assesses the potentially catastrophic consequences of the 'internationalisation' of the battle for Baghdad.
It is a sure sign that there are major policy problems when various sections of a US administration start 'briefing against' the respective secretaries of other departments.
The root cause of the deep divisions within the US administration lies principally with the State Department, whose experienced staffers have been warning of the potentially dire consequences of the current Iraqi conflict for US interests. Now there are clear signs that Arabs from across the region are heading to Iraq.
However, even the arrival in Iraq of Islamic Jihad - a group which is far more interested in striking at the US than in rescuing Saddam and the Ba'ath Party - is far from being the worst case scenario. Of far greater geo-political significance is the rapid radicalisation now sweeping across the Arab world.
Recent, reliable intelligence reports warn that radical Saudi groups have already started stockpiling smuggled weapons in preparation for a future attempt to oust the deeply compromised House of Saud, which has publicly condemned the US-led military operation in Iraq while covertly providing logistical support. In the event of serious disorder, Washington might be constrained to intervene to save a key regional ally but at the risk of fuelling further radical Islamic anger worldwide.
Beyond mounting instability in Saudi Arabia, there are also serious concerns for King Abdullah of Jordan, whose situation is perhaps the most precarious of all Iraq's neighbours owing to the country's heavy reliance on financial subsidies and cheap oil courtesy of Baghdad. Facing serious, deep-seated economic problems and with a majority Palestinian population, Jordan's government may prove to be an early Arab casualty of the Iraqi conflict. It highly unlikely that either London or Washington would be able or willing to contain a serious attempt to overthrow the king.
Although Egypt has so far managed to contain its radical Islamic groups by strong-arm tactics, President Hosni Mubarak is now warning of the "horrible consequences" of the US-led war. He predicted earlier this week that the current Iraq conflict - which Cairo has opposed - could produce "100 Bin Ladens". Although Mubarak will probably be able to deal with any specific rise in Egyptian militancy, it may prove a tougher challenge if a pan-Arab radical movement gains widespread support throughout the Middle East - a scenario described by one Arab analyst as a "real recipe for 'war without end' against the USA".
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