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Putin plans CIS military bloc
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| 14 November 2002 |
The CIS Collective Security Treaty (CIS CST) signed in Tashkent in 1992 is receiving a face lift. Russian President Vladimir Putin is urgently exerting pressure on his Russophile allies to transform the CIS CST into a military alliance modelled on the former Warsaw pact, rather than the mere piece of paper which has existed.
The first step in this direction was the re-naming of the CIS CST as the CIS Collective Security Organisation (CIS CSO) in May.
The 12 states of the CIS have long been divided into two groups. Led by Russia, the Russophile group consists of Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kirgizia and the de facto Russian protectorate of Tajikistan. All six states favour close CIS integration in the economic, political and security spheres and therefore are members of the CIS CSO and the Eurasian Economic Community (EEC).
Both the CIS CSO and the EEC are Putin's still weak alternatives to NATO and the EU respectively. This month NATO is set to incorporate the three Baltic states who never joined the CIS. Of the CIS states only Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan have expressed an interest in joining NATO. Of these Ukraine is the most likely candidate in five to 10 years and after President Leonid Kuchma, who is persona non grata at NATO, retires from office in 2004. Georgia and Azerbaijan are unlikely NATO candidates because large proportions of their territories are occupied by separatist forces covertly supported by neighbouring states and Russia.
Of those CIS states which are not members of the CIS CSO or the EEC, Moldova now has a communist president and communist-dominated parliament. Although Moldova still adheres to its neutrality and has ruled out joining the CIS CSO, it has informally agreed to join both the EEC and the Russian-Belarusian union if Ukraine does so first.
Ukraine's powerful elites are under intense pressure by Putin to join the EEC, but are not considering either of the two other structures. JID sources predict that as relations will continue to sour with NATO and the US, Ukraine - which is not one of the 12 states set to join the EU between 2004-2007 - will most likely join the EEC in the next two years as Kuchma serves out his term of office.
Although six CIS states have not expressed an interest in Putin's twin projects of the CIS CSO and EEC, they are subject to varying degrees of Russian pressure and covert operations. Russia continues to maintain military bases in Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia, making their room for manoeuvre outside Russia's sphere of influence difficult.
At the October CIS summit in Chisinau, Moldova, Putin unveiled plans to deepen the integration of the security forces of the CIS CSO. He insisted these documents should be ratified by their respective parliaments no later than May 2003, to prevent them stalling and the documents being ignored, which is the case for most CIS texts signed at summits. At the Chisinau summit CIS CSO members signed a Charter and legal framework.
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