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Indonesia's final days?
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| 17 October 2002 |
This week's terrorist atrocity in Bali may or may not prove to have been the work of Al-Qaeda – or its allies. However, the consequences of the bomb attack, which has killed nearly 200, could prove disastrous for Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation.
Terrorism in Indonesia is hardly a new phenomenon. Although the group that has received most media attention is Jemaah Islamiah, local intelligence experts point to the existence of many smaller militant organisations. These are often tiny, independent cells that have been involved in attacks against targets which their members regard as violating Islamic customs such as bars serving alcohol.
Most terrorist incidents in Indonesia – and there have been hundreds – receive little international attention. What distinguished the latest bombing was that it was clearly aimed at foreign tourists and has achieved devastating results. This is one reason why the international media, as well as some politicians, have been quick to point the finger of blame at Osama bin Laden's network.
However, JID's sources within the Western intelligence community caution that these conclusions may be premature. One key factor is the choice of target, which would seem to represent a radical departure for Al-Qaeda.
As one expert who has been tracking Al-Qaeda and its allies for years observed: "This attack just doesn't appear to fit the established pattern. Al-Qaeda's record of terrorism points to high-profile assaults on highly symbolic targets: US embassies, the World Trade Center, military personnel. Aiming at foreign tourists in a predominantly Hindu enclave like Bali points to local militants with a different agenda."
Another possible perpetrator could be the Laskar Jihad group, which has been involved in a militant separatist struggle against Christians in the Moluccas and Sulawesi islands. Although the group, which has been active since 2000, was recently reported to be disbanding, this claim is being met with deep scepticism. The leader of the group, Jafar Umar Thalib, has previously admitted having met Bin Laden and they are both veterans of the anti-Soviet conflict in Afghanistan (see JID 11 January 2002).
There is wider regional concern that Indonesia may now face an escalating campaign of terrorist attacks. Given the relative weakness of the present government, and its dependence of the support of Islamic parties, the most likely result of the Sari Club bomb attack is a rapid destabilisation of the country as a whole. This would open the way for the militants to challenge the authority of the central government as a first step towards achieving their principal objective: the creation of a purely Islamic multi-national state in the region.
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