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Iraq: the house of cards
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| 12 September 2002 |
Although most European political leaders have already lined up with the Arab nations to oppose a US-led military campaign against Iraq, a key issue is whether China and Russia – both permanent members of the United Nations Security Council – will continue to undermine efforts to issue a UN ultimatum to Baghdad. JID examines whether this could be the beginning of the end of the anti-terrorism coalition.
One of the most remarkable consequences of the terrorist attacks on 11 September was the way in which China and Russia rallied to offer their support to Washington. This has included a degree of intelligence sharing in the fields of anti-terrorism and security that would have been unimaginable even a year earlier.
However, it also cannot be denied that Moscow and Beijing have been actively pursuing their own security agendas. Since both states have what they consider their own 'terrorist threats' to counter, a major factor in their support for the 'global war on terror' is that, post-11 September, the US has been more understanding of their own 'anti-terrorism' campaigns in Chechnya, Tibet and Xinjiang (see JID 25 January 2002).
Given the links known to exist between Al-Qaeda and separatist rebels in both Chechnya and Xinjiang, this has not proved too difficult a proposition to sell to Washington, even if human rights groups continue to protest against tough security measures that they claim target civilians and non-violent political protesters, as well as armed militants.
Extending the campaign objectives to include 'regime change' in Iraq, however, is an entirely different issue. While a US-led military offensive against the Taliban regime was welcomed (and in the case of Russia, it was actively encouraged), there are grave concerns in both Moscow and Beijing over war with Iraq.
Although Russia and China both share a fundamental political objection to allowing the US to oust the rulers of sovereign states such as Iraq, there are other serious concerns. Russia, in particular, is keen to maintain oil market stability. Moscow has benefited greatly from the restricted supply of Iraqi oil since the Gulf War in 1991. Relatively high – and stable – oil prices have given Russia a major economic boost.
However, what the Kremlin fears most is the ousting of Saddam Hussein and his replacement with a US-backed puppet regime. Should such an administration be installed in Baghdad, there is likely to be a marked fall in oil prices as US oil companies are free once again to invest in Iraq's ageing and under-funded industry. While lower oil prices will be welcomed by the US, Russia will be facing difficult economic prospects. From Moscow's perspective, a protracted diplomatic wrangle – and restricted Iraqi oil output – would be best.
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