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Iran plans military expansion
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| 30 November 2000 |
Iran is embarking on a major military expansion which will have far reaching security implication for the entire Middle East. JID analyses intelligence data from Tehran to build up a disturbing picture of what is currently taking place at a time when the risk of a general regional conflict is higher than it has been for decades.
The current Israeli-Palestinian crisis is being used by Iranian hardliners to justify a major expansion of the country's military capacity. At a recent meeting of Iran's military and political leadership, Defence Minister Rear-Admiral Ali Shamkhani demanded that Iran's military capabilities should be increased.
According to reports emanating from the meeting, Shamkhami revealed that Iran is close to being self-sufficient in the manufacture of shore-to-sea cruise missiles. A project for surface-to-air missiles with a range of 50 kms is also said to be around 25% complete. Although some US defence analysts have expressed scepticism as to the effectiveness of these weapons, there can be little doubt that Iran is committing substantial resources to its aim of becoming self-sufficient in the production of new weapons and military equipment, a trend which began during the eight-year Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988).
The latest news comes after an official announcement in August that Iran had launched its first mini-submarine capable of transporting commandos and mine-laying at the port of Bandar Abbas in the Persian Gulf. In September came news that the Iranian navy now had a domestically constructed mini-vessel capable of functioning as a rocket-launcher and destroyer. Meanwhile, a locally manufactured 52-seater passenger plane is scheduled to fly by mid-February.
One of the principal reasons that Iran has been forced to develop its own defence industry is that major international defence suppliers are reluctant to break weapons embargoes. A 1995 agreement signed between US Vice President Al Gore and Russia's Viktor Chernomyrdin effectively blocked Russian arms sales to Iran. However, according to recent intelligence from Moscow, Russia has decided to scrap the deal and begin shipments of weapons and military equipment to Tehran.
Indeed, last week, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov indicated that talks will soon be held with Tehran on the signing of new military contracts. Although Klebanov stressed that any Russia's defence deals with Iran will be within the framework of international agreements, this is likely to limit the transfer of mainly nuclear equipment.
An official visit to Tehran by Russian Defence Minister Igor Sergeev is scheduled for January 2001. It is expected that the Russians will use this opportunity to promote their arms sales. In the meantime, US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov have agreed to hold talks on the international arms trade, including sales to Iran.
There are a number of reasons behind Iran's military expansion. Despite a recent warming-up of ties between Tehran and its old enemy Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, there is clearly grave concern over Iraq's current bid for regional leadership (see JID 17 November 2000). By insisting that current military developments are primarily aimed at defending Iranian interests in the event of a Middle East conflict, the Iranian leadership is also sending a strong message to Baghdad that its armed forces are in a state of readiness.
Another key issue for Tehran is the status of the Caspian Sea. This week Iranian Chief of Staff Major-General Mohammad Salimi emphasised that the country's armed forces were on the alert for any attack against its interests in the Caspian region by either NATO or Israeli troops.
In fact, Iran is currently far more concerned about Russian encroachment in disputed areas since the collapse of the Soviet Union and Moscow's apparent disregard of Soviet era treaties which Iran had signed (see JID 8 September 2000). Iranian President Mohammad Khatami announced in June that Iran would be ready to conclude a new treaty with the other states which border the Sea (Russia, Kazakstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan) in return for a 20% share in the Caspian's oil and gas reserves. However, no deal has yet been struck and Russia is pressing ahead with its oil exploration programme despite the objections of its regional rivals.
Another major concern of the Iranian leadership is the issue of Afghanistan, with which Iran has a 950 km common border. Since the Afghan conflict began two decades ago, Iran has been flooded with refugees and illegal migrants. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) there is an estimated 1.4 million Afghan population in Iran. Tehran claims that the actual figure is closer to 2.1 million.
Since April Iran has been steadily repatriating Afghans with the assistance of the UNHCR and some 20,000 have returned under voluntary arrangements, although under an agreement signed between Tehran and the UN in February the target figure is 100,000. Political pressure to solve the refugee issue is mounting. In the summer, 154 Iranian MPs called on President Khatami to repatriate the entire Afghan community and in a recent speech, Iran's Information Minister Ali Yunesi stated: "We wish all Afghan Muslims to return home and we are preparing feasibility studies to implement the plan."
Given that Iran refuses to recognise the Taleban movement which now controls much of Afghanistan, it has a major problem with Afghan refugees, who are being blamed for an epidemic of crime and narcotics trafficking. Expanding its security forces may provide Tehran with the means to launch a massive crackdown against its enemies within. MJAS.