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Across the Gulf: Yemen's stake in Somalia's security
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| 21 February 2007 |
President Ali Abdullah Saleh's interest in seeking to resolve the 16-year conflict in Somalia is clear. Since 1991, Yemen has granted automatic refugee status to Somalis fleeing regular clashes and outbreaks of fighting. The UN says there are 84,000 registered refugees in Yemen, while the government estimates that the true figure could be almost four times higher.
However, Yemen is the poorest country in the Arab world and its weak economy - with estimated 40 per cent unemployment rate - is struggling to absorb its own rapid rate of population growth. It can neither revoke its guarantee of sanctuary to Somalis nor indefinitely sustain unlimited newcomers.
On 23 January, Yemen's Minister of the Interior, Rashid Al Alimi, announced the stepping up of maritime security as a precaution against possible infiltration of Al-Qaeda fighters from Somalia.
Despite these recent security improvements, Yemen's extensive maritime borders remain largely unprotected and the navy is small and poorly equipped. Yemen is currently focusing efforts on boosting the capacity of the coastguard, with training and financial backing from the UK and the US. However, these ambitions are a long-term project.
Foiled plots in September 2006 generated a step change in the authorities' attitudes towards terrorists operating in Yemen. Extremists had shown they were prepared to target the economy and could be planning further attacks. The authorities hit back with a wave of counter-terrorist activity, arresting or killing a number of key individuals.
President Saleh's regime now faces a home-grown terrorist network that has demonstrated an intention to raise the stakes and the prospect of motivated Somali radicals crossing its shores.
Yemen's best hope of ending mass migration across the Gulf of Aden is an inclusive political settlement that delivers stability and peace in Somalia. Until such time, the authorities will have to rely on policing the coastline to the best of their abilities and reacting swiftly to evidence of security threats among new arrivals.
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© 2007 Jane's Information Group
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