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Turkish military seeks Armenia detente
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| 12 February 2007 |
The assassination of a prominent Turkish-Armenian journalist, Hrant Dink, on 19 January 2007 in Istanbul renewed attention on Turkey's troubled relations with its small neighbour, Armenia.
The record of Turkish-Armenian relations has been blighted by both Ankara's refusal to extend normal diplomatic relations to Yerevan and a trade embargo and transport blockade, imposed on Armenia in 1993 in support of Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
A group of Western-trained young officers brought into senior posts within the Turkish military's General Staff authored a preliminary, semi-official internal study in late 2006 that presented several new strategic initiatives, including a reconsideration of Turkey's long-standing hesitance toward addressing the stalemate with Armenia.
Such recognition has to date been limited to a rather narrow circle of Turkish elite, defined by a generally progressive, pro-Western orientation. In the wake of Dink's murder, however, there has been a surprising public outpouring of sympathy for Armenians that has, at least temporarily, bridged the historic enmity between the two neighbours. This has also triggered a political shift, with public opinion presently driving and defending a reassessment of Turkey's policies regarding Armenia.
For the Turkish government, the Armenian issue offers a new sense of political advantage, whereby any improvement in its relations with Armenia can offer a welcome respite to the recent round of vocal European opposition to Turkish EU membership aspirations.
It is, however, the economic consideration of a possible Turkish-Armenian rapprochement that is key for decision makers in Ankara. In fact, less than a week before Dink's killing, a conference was held in Yerevan to examine the economic and social implications of the possible reopening of the Turkish-Armenian border. The conference brought together leading economists from the US and Europe, as well as academics and business leaders from Armenia and Turkey.
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© 2007 Jane's Information Group
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