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Musharraf's high-risk gamble
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| 26 March 2003 |
The source of Musharraf's power comes from his control of the army, with the only other source of power coming from religion. For many years the religious parties in Pakistan were weakened by constant infighting.
However, in the recent regional elections, these parties came together in a six party alliance known as the MMA (Muttaheda Majlis-I-Amal), which has already won a regional election in North West Frontier Province and is the largest party in Balochistan. While these developments may show a growing opposition to Musharraf, rumours abound amongst the Pakistani intelligentsia that their president is engaged in a Machiavellian enterprise.
The belief is that the MMA could not have been created without the sanction of the president and the backing of the ISI. The apparent idea was to create an opposition to Musharraf's own party but an opposition that owed its existence to the president in order to provide the elections with some credibility.
However, Musharraf's political dealings may have created a monster that he will not be able to control. A Foreign Report correspondent who recently travelled from Islamabad on a trip to Peshawar said it was noticeable that hardline fundamentalists are making a return to everyday life in the region, with the burqa prominent on the streets. The MMA have also been the driving force behind the mobilisation of millions of the population in anti-war and anti-US marches all around the country.
Musharraf has been disappointed at the lack of credit he has received internationally for putting his job, and his life, on the line in supporting the coalition operations against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. By allowing, and surreptitiously encouraging, mass public demonstrations, he is able to show the international community what he is up against.
Similarly, despite US reassurances that Pakistan is not 'next in line' once Iraq is dealt with, Musharraf has stirred up mass panic and anti-US feeling by publicly proclaiming that he believes that Pakistan could be the next target of pre-emptive action.
The president had hoped that a large vote for an extremist religious party would trigger increased US support for his government but US troops are already operating out of Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the hunt for Al-Qaeda is already proceeding, so Musharraf has little extra to offer the Bush administration.
The MMA have tapped into a rich seam of popularity, combining anti-Americanism and the growing attraction of a fundamentalist approach to Islam.
With the USA growing tired of its unreliable ally, one that would not even guarantee its support in the recent UN Security Council debate, it is becoming clearer that Musharraf could be a victim of his own creation.
The MMA will continue to gain support, particularly if the war in Iraq goes badly, and it will also feed off the expected summer disputes with India over Kashmir. Foreign Report predicts that the MMA will continue to make massive gains in regional and national elections until Musharraf is forced to make concessions.
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