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Putin and Saddam Hussein
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| 30 August 2002 |
In a move that appears designed to anger the United States, the Russian government has let it be known that it is about to sign a huge oil deal with Iraq. The deal would become active once UN sanctions on Iraq are lifted.
Ostensibly, the deal could not have come at a worse time for Washington. During the past week, George W Bush's administration has started hinting at its readiness to use the UN as part of a concerted effort to build a more persuasive case for its planned military action against Iraq. The Americans do not believe that the UN would be able to accomplish anything on their own. Furthermore, the administration wants a change of regime in Baghdad, rather than merely the return of the arms inspectors to Iraq, as the UN demands.
Either way, using the UN, even as just a political fig leaf for war preparations, requires the co-operation of the Russians in the Security Council. The currently touted Russian-Iraqi oil deal not only strengthens Moscow's direct economic involvement in the Middle East, but also serves as an warning that whatever President Bush may be planning in the UN, Russian support cannot be taken for granted. Yet, curiously, US officials have greeted the news of a fresh oil deal with barely concealed indifference. Why?
Luckily for the Americans, the Russian military is keener to sell weapons to established Arab regimes than to the old radical Arab firebrands who never used to pay their bills. President Vladimir Putin therefore does not need to contend with an active, pro-Iraqi lobby at home. And the Russian president has many other reasons for not having an argument with the Americans over Iraq. Russia is still owed approximately US$7bn in unpaid Iraqi weapons purchases during the 1970s and 1980s.
In the past, Moscow believed the best way of recovering this money was through indirect support for Saddam Hussein. So the Russians either portrayed themselves as mediators between the US and Iraq, or as the champions of the Iraqi people, by demanding the end of the economic sanctions. Needless to say, the Iraqi dictator has encouraged this view, by promising that the moment the sanctions ware lifted and he is allowed to export unrestricted quantities of oil, his Russian bills would be paid in full.
Putin has realised that this policy led nowhere. The more the Russians engaged in efforts designed to break down Iraq's isolation, the more the Americans were determined to maintain the sanctions. Putin has therefore stopped pressing the issue in the full knowledge that, come what may, Russia will stand to benefit by simply looking benignly at whatever the US chooses to do.
If an attack on Iraq does not take place, the sanctions regime will collapse of its own accord, and Russia will be able to benefit financially, without incurring the Americans' wrath. If, however, Saddam Hussein is removed from power, the Russians will be well placed with any new Iraqi regime.
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