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Caspian security under threat
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| 09 November 2001 |
The battle for control of the Caspian Basin's vast oil and gas riches could become deadly if the US-led war against global terrorism ignites trouble in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
Turkey has already warned Russia that there is a risk of violence flaring again in the Caucasus, where Moscow's relations with Georgia have deteriorated sharply, with Georgia accusing the Russians of conducting air strikes in support of dissident forces in late October.
Tensions also remain palpable between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Indeed, the foreign ministers of Georgia and these Caucasus republics said in late October they were concerned that the developing war in Afghanistan would divert attention from the potentially explosive ethnic conflicts that have riven the region since the collapse of the Soviet Union a decade ago.
Georgia's foreign minister, Irakly Menagarishvili, whose government is fighting separatists in the Abkhazia region, has accused Moscow of exploiting the Afghan conflict to press its own interests in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Russia moved military forces to its border with Georgia in late October to block what it claimed were armed groups, many of which it said were 'Islamic zealots' from Chechnya operating with tacit Georgian support, crossing from Abkhazia.
The swelling crisis in Georgia also stems from deepening discontent with the government of President Eduard Shevardnadze, who was forced to dismiss his entire cabinet on 1 November in a bid to appease anti-government protesters.
There is also growing discontent in Uzbekistan with the authoritarian regime of President Islam Karimov, which has the largest armed forces in Central Asia. In recent months, Karimov has used the threat of militant Islam in the region as the pretext for crushing his political opposition. This, many fear, will intensify support for underground Islamic groups, particularly in the volatile Ferghana Valley.
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