• NATO allies to review possible naval mission in Eastern Mediterranean

    NATO is to review an appeal from its members Turkey and Germany for allied naval intervention to monitor the flow of migrants across the Aegean Sea, according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. "The ministers will address this issue because the migration crisis is of great concern to

  • Violent risks intelligence bulletin - 1 February 2016

    Americas Brazil - 29 January 2016: In São Paulo, 300 taxi drivers protesting against rival Uber drivers allegedly injured an unspecified number of them, vandalising their cars. Chile - 29 January 2016: Six Mapuche communities urged the government to cancel the environmental permit given to

  • Syrian government territory grows by 1.3% with Russian military support

    Syrian government territory grew by 1.3% with Russian military support between 29 September 2015 and 11 January 2016, according to the latest IHS Conflict Monitor estimate. Significance: Russia’s immediate objective in Syria, namely to shore up the Assad government’s position and save

  • Algerian Su-32 order makes progress

    Algeria has taken a step towards acquiring Sukhoi Su-32 bombers from Russia, according to Sergei Smirov, the director of the Novosibirsk Aircraft Production Association (NAPO) plant. The Su-32 is the export designation of the Su-34, which is made by the NAPO plant. In an interview published by the

  • Use of chemical weapons continues in Syria

    The Executive Council of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) on 23 November 2015 expressed "grave concern" that chemical weapons (CW) had once again been used in Syria after its fact-finding mission (FFM) confirmed "with the utmost confidence" that sulphur mustard had

  • Top 10 risks in 2016

    EVENT The IHS Country Risk Analysis and Forecasting Team (CRAFT) team watches, assesses, and forecasts the level and specific nature of violent risks across the globe. In this report we explore 10 of the major risk environments of 2016 together with their likely impact and key indicators, which we

  • Islamic State’s caliphate shrinks by 14% in 2015

    The Islamic State’s ‘caliphate’ shrunk by 12,800 km2 to 78,000 km2 between 1 January and 14 December 2015, a net loss of 14%, according to the latest estimates by the IHS Conflict Monitor team. Losses in 2015 include large swathes of Syria’s northern border with Turkey,

  • Attack kills 12 presidential guards in Tunisia's Tunis

    AT LEAST 12 presidential guard personnel were killed and 17 others were wounded in a suspected suicide attack targeting a bus carrying presidential guards on the Mohammed V Avenue in Tunisia's capital Tunis on 24 November, Reuters and Al-Jazeera reported. No group immediately claimed responsibility

  • Islamic State's territorial losses in Iraq and Syria increases likelihood of counter-attacks within government-controlled territory

    EVENT On 13 November Kurdish forces, including the PKK, and Yezidi fighters supported by US airstrikes liberated Sinjar, Ninevah province. As with previous territorial advances against the Islamic State in recent weeks, the Islamic State withdrew its fighters from Sinjar and abandoned the town

  • IAI unveils its Terra dual-band long-range radar system

    Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) has unveiled a long-range radar system that includes the new EL/M-2090S Spectra S-band radar. When linked to the previously unveiled EL/M-2090U Ultra UHF radar, the two combine to form Terra, officials from IAI's Elta division told journalists at a facility in

  • JTIC Brief: Destabilising influence? The challenges posed by Iraq's Shia militias

    Key Points A rocket attack by a Shia militia near the Iraqi capital Baghdad on 29 October targeted members of an Iranian militant group. The attack underlined the growing influence and power of the multiple Shia militias that have either been founded or strengthened since mid-2014. Although a

  • JTIC Global Attack Index - September 2015

    Key Points JTIC recorded 1,516 worldwide attacks by non-state armed groups in September 2015, a 7.5% decrease in the average daily total compared with August. In Yemen, the decreasing militant operational tempo across the month was principally indicative of the extent to which Ansar Allah had been

  • Kidnapping of NGO workers indicates continued militant threat to army, UN operational capacity in DRC's North Kivu

    EVENT Fourteen humanitarian workers from a local non-governmental organisation (NGO) kidnapped on 1 November by armed men near Katwiguru in the Rutshuru region of North Kivu province, Democratic Republic of Congo, were freed within 24 hours. The Rutshuru administrator attributed their liberation

  • Mass kidnapping of Tunisian nationals highlights high risk of politically, and profit, motivated kidnap in western Libya

    EVENT Several dozen Tunisian nationals were kidnapped in several incidents by unidentified militiamen in Libya on 13 October 2015, in response to the arrest three days earlier of a Libyan official in Tunisia. The militiamen were demanding the release of Hussein al-Zawadi, head of the Sabratha

  • Bahrain becomes launch customer for Russian Kornet-EM system

    Bahrain has become the launch customer for the new Kornet-EM anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) system, according to a Russian military industrial complex source. The source said Bahrain ordered about 100 9M133M-2 missiles for the Kornet-EM system in 2014. The type and number of launchers ordered by

  • Russia to defend core Syrian government areas

    US officials first alluded publicly to the deployment of additional Russian forces into Syria on 4 September, claiming that new housing under construction at Latakia airport, also known as Bassel al-Assad International Airport, could billet up to 1,000 military personnel. By 16 September, Washington

  • DSEI 2015: French Navy details lessons learned from Gulf carrier deployment

    Key Points Carrier deployment demonstrates ability to shape events at sea and ashore while supporting wider strategic interests Gulf maritime environment is becoming more complex, with more navies present The recent deployment of the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and its

  • Foreign fighter influx raises likelihood of Islamic State controlling smuggling routes and fighting in Libya's Murzuq basin

    EVENT The Islamic State released on 8 September pictures purportedly showing the beheaded body of a Libyan National Army (LNA) soldier captured the previous day during the group's offensive on al-Nawaqya, 20 kilometres (km) southwest of Benghazi. The offensive was repelled by the LNA and resulted

  • OSINT Summary: Turkish PM vows to 'wipe out' the PKK after attack on army in Hakkari

    Turkish prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu pledged to "wipe out" the Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan (PKK) at a televised news conference in the capital Ankara on 8 September, following an attack by the group on army forces in the Daglica area of Hakkâri province on 6 September that left

  • Boko Haram militants kill seven civilians in Nigeria's Borno

    SEVEN civilians were killed and five wounded when Boko Haram militants raided the village of Hambagda in Nigeria's Borno State on 30 August, Al-Jazeera reported. Eyewitnesses reported that the militants arrived in the village on horseback before opening fire on residents with small-arms.