Peace in his time? - Colombian president talks to insurgents

The rumours had been circulating in Bogotá for weeks. So when Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos announced on 27 August 2012 that the government was exploring the possibility of peace talks with the country's largest insurgent group, the 9,000-strong Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), it confirmed what many security analysts and media commentators had suspected: discreet back-channel discussions had been taking place between the two sides with a view to potentially launching a formal peace process.

Indeed, Santos' landmark announcement appears to have been rushed out to forestall the growing speculation. Santos' predecessor, Álvaro Uribe (2002-2010), had already come close to spoiling the party when he alleged on 19 August that the government had held exploratory talks with the FARC in Cuba.

That was an accurate allegation, although Santos was initially circumspect about the details of the negotiations. Former vice president (and cousin of the incumbent) Francisco Santos confirmed that the back-channel contacts had already begun in Havana earlier in February, with 10 preparatory rounds taking place between then and August. Sources in Bogotá confirmed to IHS Jane's that the president's announcement had initially been scheduled for mid-September, but was advanced because of the growing risk of leakage.

As speculation mounted about the modalities for the talks, Santos himself confirmed on 4 September that six months of preparatory talks had indeed taken place in Cuba, laying the groundwork for the launch of a formal dialogue. He further confirmed that the peace talks would begin in Oslo in early October, to be followed by a mediation process in Cuba.