Analysis: the UK MoD's revolving door

The resignation of Liam Fox and the immediate selection of transport minister Philip Hammond on 14 October as UK defence secretary marks the sixth change at the helm of the ministry since 2005.

The past five incumbents have averaged just under 16 months in office, with Fox's tenure of 18 months by no means unusual.

The revolving-door approach taken to the leadership of the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has been replicated across the UK government. Hammond's departure from the Department for Transport marks the seventh change in leadership over the same period, while the Department of Work and Pensions and the Scotland Office have notched up six and seven incumbents respectively.

The question facing the UK defence sector is whether the replacement of Fox will mark a change of direction for the MoD. Earlier indications are that the reforms commenced by Fox - underpinned by the October 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) - will continue their course. This is not least because many of the hard decisions have already been taken and driven through by Fox and the margin for change has been drastically reduced by fiscal constraints.

Equipment and platform programmes valued at GBP20 billion (USD30.5 billion) have already been culled or drastically truncated: 17,000 service personnel and 25,000 ministry civilians have been earmarked for redundancy and overall defence spending is heading to a reduction of at least 8 per cent from 2010-14. Furthermore, the MoD has made it clear that off-the-shelf procurement will be a "default position".

There are, in short, few options for substantial deviation from this course.